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Method for determining optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

A technology of Weibull distribution and equipment, applied in the field of life cycle management of electric power enterprise equipment, can solve problems such as economic loss, energy waste, lack of scientific and quantitative standards and boundaries, etc., achieve strong fitting ability, reduce energy waste and The effect of economic loss

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-11-27
SHENZHEN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU +1
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Problems solved by technology

However, in current practical applications, the definition of the optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment has always remained at the level of qualitative analysis, mostly based on on-site experience such as equipment design life, service life reference value, and operating years, lacking scientific and quantitative Therefore, it is easy to lead to early decommissioning of equipment, and its value is not fully utilized, resulting in energy waste and economic loss

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  • Method for determining optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment based on three-parameter Weibull distribution
  • Method for determining optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment based on three-parameter Weibull distribution
  • Method for determining optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

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Embodiment Construction

[0016] Embodiments of the present invention will now be described with reference to the drawings, in which like reference numerals represent like elements.

[0017] Please refer to figure 1 , taking the SF6 circuit breaker as an example, the specific steps of the method of the present invention are described in detail. Such as figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0018] S101, establish an equipment failure rate model based on the Weibull distribution law; specifically, assuming that the cumulative failure probability F(t) of the equipment within the entire life cycle obeys the three variable parameters of shape parameter m, scale parameter η, and position parameter γ Weibull distribution law, expressed as Thus, the failure rate model of the circuit breaker is obtained as λ ( t ) = ( m η ) ( ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for determining optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment based on three-parameter Weibull distribution. The method comprises the following steps: establishing an equipment failure rate model based on a Weibull distribution principle; carrying out parameter estimation on the failure rate model to obtain a failure rate function; and determining the optimal decommissioning time of the equipment according to the failure rate function. Compared with the prior art, the method disclosed by the invention has the advantages that 1, the method has the universality; 2, compared with a two-parameter Weibull distribution mode, the three-parameter Weibull distribution mode has a stronger capability of fitting various types of experimental data and particularly has a higher fitting precision for power grid equipment with loss failures characteristics, so that the actual condition of the failures of the equipment can be reflected well; 3, the relatively-accurate optimal decommissioning time of the equipment can be provided so that a scientific and quantitative definition standard is provided for formulating an asset entire life-cycle management policy (particularly an operation and maintenance policy and an decommissioning policy); the value of the equipment is developed sufficiently, and the energy source waste and the economic losses are reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of life cycle management of electric power enterprise equipment, and more specifically relates to a method for determining the optimal decommissioning time of power grid equipment based on a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Background technique [0002] The optimal decommissioning time of grid equipment is a very important reference value for formulating asset life cycle management strategies. However, in current practical applications, the definition of the best decommissioning time for power grid equipment has always remained at the level of qualitative analysis, mostly based on on-site experience such as equipment design life, service life reference value, and operating years, lacking scientific and quantitative Therefore, it is easy to lead to early decommissioning of equipment, and its value is not fully utilized, resulting in energy waste and economic losses. [0003] Therefore, it is necessary t...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 陈法池邓世聪刘涌
Owner SHENZHEN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU
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