Transient disturbance weather map and low-frequency disturbance weather map manufacturing method and application of method in weather report

Abstract

The invention discloses a transient disturbance weather map and low-frequency disturbance weather map manufacturing method based on atmospheric variable physical decomposition and application of the method in weather forecast. The method includes that formerly observed, recently observed and medium-term numerical weather predication modes are used for output atmospheric space three-dimensional multi-variable and time continuous grid point data, climate components and synoptic scale disturbance components of daily cycle and annual cycle are obtained through physical decomposition, and the synoptic scale disturbance components are used for manufacturing a transient disturbance weather map and a low-frequency disturbance weather map. According to the method, after climate seasonal variation field and day-by-day synoptic scale transient disturbance field physical decomposition is performed on meteorological data of the Northern Hemisphere in the past 30 years, synoptic scale transient disturbance components predicated through the recently observed and medium-term numerical weather predication modes are used for drawing a transient disturbance weather map and a low-frequency disturbance weather map. The transient disturbance weather map is suitable for manufacturing 1 to 3 days short-term weather forecast and 4 to 9 days medium-term weather forecast, the low-frequency disturbance weather map is suitable for manufacturing medium-term and 10 to 30 days elongating stage weather process forecast. A novel tool for weather forecast is provided, and accuracy of the weather forecast can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of meteorology, in particular to a reform of the traditional weather map used daily by weather forecasting business departments. It is a tool for short-term precipitation fall area forecast, 4-9 day medium-term precipitation fall area forecast and 10-30 day extended period precipitation process forecast. Background technique [0002] Heavy precipitation, such as heavy rain, refers to the amount of precipitation reaching or exceeding 50mm within 1 day (24 hours). The process of regional heavy precipitation and torrential rain is the key trigger mechanism for the occurrence of major disasters such as floods and debris flows. Whether the forecast of heavy rainfall in the region can be made a few days in advance is related to the government's organization of disaster prevention, disaster relief and post-disaster rescue. The 10- to 30-day precipitation process forecast is also important information for ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

It can be seen that the accuracy of the current rainstorm forecast is far from the requirements of the society

3 to 9 days of heavy rain fall area forecast level may be lower

Clearly, such mean fields and cumulative precipitation at 7-day time intervals cannot indicate the synoptic process in which rainstorms or precipitation occurred, and the temporal resolution and applicability of the information are not sufficient

[0008] Using the same traditional weather map, a small number of experienced forecasters have higher skills in forecasting abnormal weather, but experience can only be understood, it is difficult to express

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