BN-GIS (Bayesian Network-Geographic Information System) method for evaluating and predicting water inrush danger of coal-seam roof and floor

Abstract

The invention relates to a quantitative evaluation method for water inrush danger of coal-seam roof and floor. On the basis of systematic analysis of coal-mine hydrological and geologic features and in combination with the traditional mining conditions, an evaluating indicator system for coal-mine water inrush safety situation is established; based on the classification of water inrush, a water inrush situation prior probabilistic model is established; and according to the data of faultage water transmissibility, fold strength, water pressure in the water-bearing strata and other aspects in a coal-mine water-filling system, sub thematic graphs for safety situation evaluation factors are established. Combined superimposition analysis is performed on nine thematic graphs on the faultage water transmissibility, fold strength and the like by utilizing the spatial analysis function of a GIS; a BN model is established by virtue of parameter learning and network reasoning and is used for calculating conditional probability and reckoning the posterior probability of the water inrush danger according to the calculated prior probability; and according to the BN (Bayesian network) model, the water inrush danger on coal-seam coalface roof and floor on the premise of the existing mining intensity are dynamically evaluated and predicated, and the water inrush danger on the coal-seam coalface roof and floor on the premise that the mining intensity is enhanced in order to complete the increased task are dynamically evaluated and predicated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a risk assessment and prediction method for water inrush from roof and floor of coal mines, in particular to a method based on Bayesian Network (Bayesian Network, hereinafter referred to as BN)-Geographical Information System (hereinafter referred to as GIS) method, that is, a new practical method for decision-making of coal mine water inrush risk coupled with BN and GIS. Background technique [0002] In my country's energy consumption structure, the proportion of coal consumption is much higher than others. With the continuous high demand for coal, the mining conditions of coal are becoming more and more complicated. The groundwater in the floor aquifer and the roof and floor aquifer enters the roadway through various channels, resulting in the occurrence of water hazards or hindering the normal production of the mining face. Instances are increasing day by day and getting worse. In 2005 alone, there were 109 water disasters...

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This requirement is obviously unsatisfactory for the above method

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