High tide level quantitative research method for estuary design in future scene

Abstract

The invention discloses a high tide level quantitative research method for estuary design in a future scene. The method comprises the following steps: S10, processing long series observation data of corrected estuary tide level by utilizing a Mann-Kendall method so as to judge the trend of the estuary tide level; S20, adopting a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and combining with Metropolis-Hastings sampling to construct a random model, and simulating a tide level sequence through the random model; S30, combining the historical tide level sequence and the simulated tide level sequence to obtain a new tide level sequence, and checking the new tide level sequence; and S40, calculating an initial value according to the new tide level sequence, and performing visual estimation line adaptation by utilizing a P-III type curve to finally obtain a designed high tide level. A quantitative solution is provided for predicting and researching the design high tide level in the estuary area, the calculation result is reasonable and credible, and the method has high practical value in the aspects of flood prevention and moisture prevention work and corresponding engineering design.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy engineering, in particular to a quantitative research method for the designed high tide level of an estuary under a future scenario. Background technique [0002] The design tide level is an important hydrological data in the design of coastal disaster prevention engineering. It not only directly affects the determination of the elevation of embankment engineering, but also affects the selection of building types and structural calculations. The scale, level and usage of coastal disaster prevention projects are different, and the design tidal levels selected are also different. In the past, in the design of some units in our country, the design high water level of embankment projects used the highest tide level in the past years. In the case of a short period of measured data, the highest tide level in the past years was determined based on investigation and demonstration. After analyzi...

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Problems solved by technology

However, most studies only considered the impact of sea level rise and other factors, but did not conduct quantitative analysis, especially the impact of the frequency of extreme high tide levels on the design high tide level was not quantitatively analyzed, which brought a lot of inconvenience to practical applications

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