Looking for breakthrough ideas for innovation challenges? Try Patsnap Eureka!

Initial value small perturbation method suitable for regional numerical mode set simulation forecast

A numerical model and small disturbance method technology, applied in the field of meteorology, can solve problems such as difficult to express the characteristics of observation errors, and achieve the effect of easy popularization and application and avoiding correlation

Pending Publication Date: 2021-11-26
厦门市气象台 +2
View PDF0 Cites 0 Cited by
  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above-mentioned initial value perturbation techniques have the following common characteristics: (1) need the model to carry out cyclic integral forecasting to count the forecast error covariance matrix; (2) need to solve the eigenvector or singular vector of the error covariance matrix; (3 ) Whether the initial value disturbance can grow rapidly, diverge and uniformly discrete in the model forecast is used as the criterion for judging the quality of the ensemble forecast; (4) It is difficult to express the actual observation error characteristics

Method used

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View more

Image

Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Viewing Examples
Smart Image
  • Initial value small perturbation method suitable for regional numerical mode set simulation forecast
  • Initial value small perturbation method suitable for regional numerical mode set simulation forecast
  • Initial value small perturbation method suitable for regional numerical mode set simulation forecast

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0040] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments of the present invention. Apparently, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0041] An initial value small perturbation method suitable for ensemble simulation prediction of regional numerical models, comprising the following steps:

[0042] Step 1. Use historical reanalysis data to statistically calculate the average value and total disturbance field of model variables at a certain forecast time t:

[0043] Assume that there are historical reanalysis data of it=1,2,...,NT years at a certain forecast time t; The number of grid points on the y-axis, k...

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

PUM

No PUM Login to View More

Abstract

The invention discloses an initial value small perturbation method suitable for regional numerical mode set simulation forecast. The method comprises the following steps: 1, calculating an average value and a total disturbance field of mode variables at a certain forecasting moment t by using historical reanalysis data statistics; 2, standardizing mode variables related to a total disturbance field in a mode area at a certain forecasting moment; 3, carrying out joint orthogonal decomposition on the standardized mode variable total disturbance field in the mode area at a certain forecasting moment; 4, sequentially reconstructing and converting the orthogonal vector and the coefficient after joint orthogonal decomposition; and 5, constructing initial value disturbance of a mode region at a certain forecasting moment. A historical data set is fully utilized to obtain mutually orthogonal initial value disturbances, so that the initial value disturbances not only can fully reflect disturbances of different scales and different structures closely related to occurrence and development of specific weather in a numerical mode initial value field, but also can reflect the possibility of actual observation error distribution.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of meteorology, in particular to an initial value small disturbance method suitable for ensemble simulation forecast of regional numerical models. Background technique [0002] The quality of the initial value conditions of the numerical model plays an important role in the forecast performance. In order to improve the initial value of the model, meteorologists around the world have successively developed the optimal statistical difference, three-dimensional variational assimilation, four-dimensional variational assimilation and ensemble Kalman filter. However, due to the uncertainty of observations, it is difficult for the initial value of the model to reach the "true value", and it is also difficult for the physical process of the model to "truly" describe the actual atmosphere. In order for the model to be able to predict the possibility of some extreme weather processes, meteorologists have proposed the ...

Claims

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

Application Information

Patent Timeline
no application Login to View More
Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18G06F17/16
CPCG06F17/18G06F17/16
Inventor 赵玉春王叶红
Owner 厦门市气象台
Who we serve
  • R&D Engineer
  • R&D Manager
  • IP Professional
Why Patsnap Eureka
  • Industry Leading Data Capabilities
  • Powerful AI technology
  • Patent DNA Extraction
Social media
Patsnap Eureka Blog
Learn More
PatSnap group products