Initial value small perturbation method suitable for regional numerical mode set simulation forecast
A numerical model and small disturbance method technology, applied in the field of meteorology, can solve problems such as difficult to express the characteristics of observation errors, and achieve the effect of easy popularization and application and avoiding correlation
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[0040] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments of the present invention. Apparently, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
[0041] An initial value small perturbation method suitable for ensemble simulation prediction of regional numerical models, comprising the following steps:
[0042] Step 1. Use historical reanalysis data to statistically calculate the average value and total disturbance field of model variables at a certain forecast time t:
[0043] Assume that there are historical reanalysis data of it=1,2,...,NT years at a certain forecast time t; The number of grid points on the y-axis, k...
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