Method for jointly solving fault tree top event probability based on MCS and BDD

A technology of event probability and fault tree, applied in the direction of probability network, neural learning method, based on specific mathematical model, etc.

Pending Publication Date: 2021-04-23
SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, not all fault trees obtained from risk analysis problems are suitable for modular processing, so this scheme still has obvious limitations

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  • Method for jointly solving fault tree top event probability based on MCS and BDD
  • Method for jointly solving fault tree top event probability based on MCS and BDD
  • Method for jointly solving fault tree top event probability based on MCS and BDD

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[0032] The accompanying drawings are for illustrative purposes only and cannot be construed as limiting the patent;

[0033] It should be clear that the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present application, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the embodiments of the present application, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the embodiments of the present application.

[0034] The terms used in the embodiments of the present application are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present application. The singular forms "a", "said" and "the" used in the embodiments of this application and the appended claims are also intended to include plural forms unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It should also be understood that the term "and / or" as used h...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for solving a fault tree top event probability based on combination of MCS and BDD, and aims to solve a Boolean expression of a fault tree by using a Boolean satisfiability problem solver aiming at the technical problems that memory explosion and inaccuracy are easily caused in the prior art. Based on a minimum cut set (Minimal Cut Set, MCS) of the fault tree, the degree of influence of a bottom event on the occurrence probability of a fault tree top event is measured according to the occurrence probability of the bottom event appearing in the minimum cut set, and the bottom event with the higher occurrence probability is selected to be preferentially added into the construction process of a binary decision graph, so as to reduce the structural complexity of the binary decision graph (BDD), the probability of memory explosion is reduced from the aspect of structural complexity, the solving process of the occurrence probability of the top event is optimized, and finally, fault tree quantitative analysis can be quickly and accurately carried out on the risk control object under a relatively low hardware operation condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of risk control, in particular to the quantitative analysis technology of the fault tree, and more specifically, to a method for jointly solving the event probability at the top of the fault tree based on MCS and BDD. Background technique [0002] Risk control is a very important link in many industrial fields. Among them, fault tree analysis is the most important technology in risk control, and it is widely used in aerospace, nuclear power, chemical process, pharmaceutical, petrochemical and other high-risk industries. Fault tree is a kind of tree-structured data, which takes the event that the system does not want to happen or causes the system to be unsafe, that is, the top event, as the target of analysis, and traces back to all possible causes layer by layer, that is, the bottom event; Tree analysis is mainly divided into qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis can ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06N3/08G06N7/00G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/0635G06N3/082G06F17/18G06N7/01
Inventor 万海刘子良宋晓彤罗炜麟
Owner SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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