Shield tunnel risk assessment method considering uncertainty of earthquake vulnerability model

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of tunnel risks, and provides a shield tunnel risk assessment method considering uncertainty of an earthquake vulnerability model. The method comprises the followingsteps: (1) determining various earthquake vulnerability models FC1, FC2 to FCn of tunnels in the same type; (2) establishing a vulnerability model FC0 considering uncertainty; (3) selecting a certainearthquake intensity PGA; (4) setting a sampling frequency N, and sampling the vulnerability model FC0 in the step (2) to obtain N groups of discrete probabilities P0, P1, P2 and P3 of different damage states; (5) obtaining N groups of average expected losses lsm1 according to the step (4); (6) calculating the average expected loss lsm2 of each quantile; (7) repeating the steps (3)-(6) to obtainthe average expected loss lsm of different PGAs; and (8) obtaining a risk index R value based on the result of the step (7). The scheme provided by the invention has the beneficial effects that errorscaused by a single model can be reduced, different vulnerability curve models are comprehensively considered, and the tunnel earthquake risk is analyzed more reasonably.

Description

technical field [0001] This application relates to the field of seismic risk analysis of shield tunnels, in particular to a risk assessment method for shield tunnels considering the uncertainty of seismic vulnerability models. Background technique [0002] The concept of risk originated in the field of economic research at the end of the 19th century. Since the 1970s, risk assessment has been widely used in various fields, such as nuclear power plant risk analysis, large-scale infrastructure risk analysis, and bridge engineering. Risk analysis, structural engineering risk analysis, etc. Because earthquakes will cause significant damage to structures and cause huge economic losses, the academic community continues to conduct research on structural seismic risk (Seismic risk) analysis. Scholars from various countries have established a large number of seismic risk analysis methods and models for different research objects. To reasonably estimate the post-earthquake economic l...

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Problems solved by technology

[0013] Shield tunnels are one of the key structural forms of the lifeblood of urban underground transportation facilities. In the past, tunnel seismic risk analysis researches were often based on semi-qualitative and semi-quantitative risk matrix analysis methods, which made it difficult to effectively and accurately analyze the magnitude of tunnel seismic risk, and seldom considered different easily The impact of destructive model selection on the probability analysis of tunnel earthquake risk will often underestimate or overestimate the size of tunnel earthquake risk

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