Comprehensive energy station stochastic programming method and system based on dynamic carbon transaction model

Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive energy station stochastic programming method and system based on a dynamic carbon transaction model, and the method comprises the steps: analyzing the fluctuation aggregation characteristics of a carbon transaction income price sequence, and establishing a carbon transaction price prediction model through an index generalized autoregression condition heteroscedasticity model; establishing a comprehensive energy station stochastic programming model considering wind / light / load uncertainty, establishing a wind / light / load uncertainty stochastic distributionmodel, processing random variables through opportunity constraint programming, and converting the stochastic opportunity constraint programming model into an equivalent deterministic model; inputtingdata such as supply side energy types, annual energy requirements, equipment parameters and typical daily operation maximum power requirements, adopting a mixed integer nonlinear programming solver for solving, and outputting a programming result for analysis. The capacity configuration scheme and the annual operation time of the equipment can be obtained at the same time, and the service life ofthe equipment is prolonged to the maximum extent while the park energy supply safety is met.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of integrated energy stations, in particular to a random planning method and system for integrated energy stations based on a dynamic carbon trading model. Background technique [0002] The output power of new energy generators such as wind and wind is uncertain, and it is inevitable that there will be sudden large power fluctuations. On the other hand, as a clean and renewable energy source, wind and wind have been widely used in the energy market. Compared with the grid connection and consumption of wind power in the traditional power grid, in the integrated energy station with higher flexibility, how to make reasonable planning to make it more effective to deal with the uncertainty of renewable energy is one of the important challenges it faces. In addition, with the gradual diversification of energy consumption forms and ways of users, the impact of demand-side load uncertainty on system planning becomes...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in the context of existing research, neither comprehensive energy station planning nor carbon trading pricing research has taken into account the impact of the two, especially the impact of the determination method and volatility of carbon trading prices on integrated energy station planning.

The transaction price in the carbon trading market is changing in real time, and the use of a fixed carbon trading model to participate in planning and modeling is likely to lead to less than optimal planning schemes due to fluctuations in the carbon trading market on a longer time scale, resulting in greater economic and environmental losses

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