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Rural medium-and-long-term load prediction method considering influence of development mode

A load forecasting, medium- and long-term technology, applied in the field of electrical automation, can solve the problems that the medium- and long-term load forecasting of rural power grids is no longer applicable, and does not consider the specific characteristics of rural loads, so as to achieve the effect of reasonable load forecasting results

Pending Publication Date: 2020-02-28
国网江西省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 +1
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Problems solved by technology

However, these existing methods and research results do not consider the specific characteristics of rural loads, which makes these methods no longer suitable for medium and long-term load forecasting of rural power grids

Method used

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  • Rural medium-and-long-term load prediction method considering influence of development mode
  • Rural medium-and-long-term load prediction method considering influence of development mode

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] Such as figure 1 Shown is the schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention: the medium and long-term load forecasting method in rural areas that considers the impact of the development model provided by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0035] S1. According to the historical load data in rural areas, analyze and obtain the distribution of various load types in rural areas; specifically, cluster and analyze the collected historical rural electricity load data through the K-means clustering model to obtain the proportion of different types of loads in the rural area ;

[0036] In the specific implementation, the K-means clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the types of rural electricity loads, and the proportion of different types of loads in the countryside is obtained. The core idea of ​​the K-means clustering algorithm is to gather each element to its nearest The central class makes the similarity of objects in the sam...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a rural medium-and-long-term load prediction method considering the influence of a development mode. The rural medium-and-long-term load prediction method comprises the steps of analyzing and obtaining each rural load type distribution according to rural historical load data; classifying rural development modes; analyzing to obtain a specific development mode of the targetrural area and main factors influencing load change of the target rural area in the specific development mode; and predicting the medium-and-long-term load of the target rural area. According to the method,the characteristic of different load types in different rural development modes is fully considered; a double-layer clustering analysis algorithm based on K-means and Gaussian mixed clustering is provided; main influence factors influencing rural electrical loads are obtained through grey relational analysis,and a GRU model is adopted to predict rural medium and long term loads,so that a load prediction result is more reasonable and more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electrical automation, and in particular relates to a rural mid- and long-term load forecasting method considering the influence of a development model. Background technique [0002] With the development of economy and technology and the improvement of people's living standards, electric energy has become an indispensable secondary energy source in people's production and life, bringing endless convenience to people's production and life. Therefore, ensuring the stable and reliable operation of the power system and ensuring the stable and reliable supply of electricity for users has become one of the most important tasks of the power system. [0003] With the development of my country's rural economy and the surge in electricity demand, there are also new characteristics of rural electricity demand in the new stage, such as the diversity of electricity structure, the intensification of seasonal problems, and the im...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/06375
Inventor 熊宁王敏钟士元舒娇
Owner 国网江西省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
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