Medium-and-long-term load prediction method and device based on user energy consumption characteristics

Abstract

The invention is applicable to the technical field of energy, and provides a medium-and-long-term load prediction method and device based on user energy consumption characteristics, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the historical load data of user energy consumption; calculating the similarity between the load data of the user in the current year and the load data of other years basedon the historical load data, and calculating the variation coefficient of the load data of the user in each year; determining a prediction method according to the similarity and the variation coefficient; and predicting a load prediction value based on the historical data and the determined prediction method. In order to solve the problem that an existing medium-and-long-term load prediction method does not fully consider the energy consumption characteristics of industrial users, the invention provides a medium-and-long-term load prediction method fully considering the energy consumption characteristics of the users, and the method is high in implementation performance and load prediction precision and can effectively realize medium-and-long-term load prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of energy technology, and in particular relates to a medium- and long-term load forecasting method and device based on user energy consumption characteristics. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting refers to making a prediction of future load capacity based on historical load data. Taking building load forecasting as an example, it refers to predicting the future load capacity of a building based on historical data of building load, such as predicting the load capacity of a building. ability etc. At present, load forecasting methods are mainly divided into two types, one is mathematical statistical method (also known as classical load forecasting method), and the other is artificial intelligence method (also called modern load forecasting method). At present, artificial intelligence forecasting method has made great achievements The breakthrough has been successfully applied to the prediction of building loa...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] In view of this, the present invention provides a medium and long-term load forecasting method and device based on user energy consumption characteristics to solve the technical problem that the existing medium and long-term load forecasting methods do not fully consider the energy consumption characteristics of industrial users

Images