Non-uniform design flood calculation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a non-uniform design flood calculation method. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a drainage basin actual measurement flood sequence by adopting an annual maximum value method; carrying out inconsistent flood frequency analysis by taking the cascade reservoir index RI as a covariable; determining statistical parameters of a future period according to thedrainage basin future period hydraulic engineering plan, and obtaining flood probability distribution of the future period; calculating a design flood value of a certain recurrence period under a non-uniform condition; and performing uncertainty analysis of non-uniform design flood calculation. According to the method, non-uniform design flood calculation is carried out based on the associated cascade reservoir group regulation and storage factors, and the effect is better than that of a time covariable model; according to the method, based on the ENE concept, the unique design flood magnitude corresponding to a certain recurrence period under the non-consistency condition is solved, and a powerful reference can be provided for non-consistency design flood and uncertainty calculation of the non-consistency design flood of a drainage basin with the obvious water conservancy project regulation influence.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood frequency analysis, and in particular relates to a non-uniform design flood calculation method. Background technique [0002] Under the influence of global climate change and large-scale human activities, the consistency assumption of hydrological extreme events is destroyed, and the historical hydrological situation as the basis for the design of water conservancy and hydropower projects will not be able to reflect the current and future hydrological situation. The non-uniform flood frequency analysis mostly focuses on the time-varying moment theory, which describes the non-uniform characteristics of the flood time series by constructing the statistical parameters of the flood probability distribution with time or other physical covariates. Coles gave a detailed introduction to the time-varying moment method applied to non-uniform hydrological frequency analysis. GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Under the influence of multi-blocking effects of cascade reservoirs, the hydrological time series of many watersheds are no longer in a natural random state, which makes the traditional flood frequency analysis method based on the consistency assumption no longer applicable, and the corresponding design flood results have potential safety hazards

The current non-uniform design flood calculation seldom considers the multi-blocking effect of cascade reservoirs, and the commonly used time-varying moment method has the defect that there is a design value every year

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