Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine

Abstract

The invention discloses a microgrid short-term load forecasting method based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, which comprises the following steps: adopting Chebyshevv orthogonal polynomial to carry out curve fitting on historical daily load data of the microgrid region, and adding penalty function to carry out optimization; Updating the historical load data and using independent component analysis method to obtain the load independent separation source and mixed matrix of historical load data; For the meteorological data of historical day and forecast day, principal component analysis is used to obtain the principal component vector, and the decision data is combined with the date data. The mixed matrix of historical load data is used as the target data, combined with the historical day decision data, and the support vector machine (SVM) and fireworks algorithm are used to optimize the penalty factor and the kernel parameter, so as to obtain the optimal SVMtraining model. The forecasted daily load curve is obtained by substituting the forecasted daily decision data. The invention can remove noise interference, and can effectively and accurately predictthe load of the microgrid in a short time in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term load forecasting method for a micro-grid based on independent component analysis and a support vector machine, and belongs to the technical field of power system scheduling and operation. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of society, the human demand for energy is also increasing. In the electric power industry, the power generation pattern dominated by traditional fossil energy has also become more and more disadvantageous due to the gradual depletion of resources and environmental problems. With the development of science and technology in recent years, various new energy sources can be used for power generation, such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, It is gradually applied to the power system, but it also brings problems and challenges to the power system scheduling and operation while solving the problem of energy depletion. [0003] Traditional short-term load forec...

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the difficulty of forecasting caused by the uncertainty of the load in the microgrid, and provide a short-term load forecasting method for the microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, with the regional daily load of the microgrid as the final Predict variables, while taking into account the noise interference in the historical load data, perform adaptive curve fitting to smooth the load curve, remove noise interference, and avoid the unsmooth defect of the load curve caused by the prediction, so as to improve the accuracy of the model Or reduce the computational load of the model

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