Pollutant health risk assessment method based on process simulation and uncertainty analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a pollutant health risk assessment method based on process simulation and uncertainty analysis. According to the invention, health risk assessment is combined with groundwaterpollutant migration process, and TOUGH2 software is utilized to simulate temporal and spatial distribution of organic pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the reliability of assessment results, impact of the uncertainty of pollutant transport on human health risk assessment is taken into account, and inversion identification on key parameter media permeability is carried out by adoptinga Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The method improves the reliability of risk assessment results by analyzing the uncertainty of pollutant migration simulation, and provides decision-making information for the management and prevention of contaminated sites.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a health risk assessment method of typical organic pollutants based on process simulation and uncertainty analysis, and belongs to the technical field of pollutant health risk assessment. Background technique [0002] In many water-shortage areas, groundwater is an important source of water for residents' lives, irrigation and industrial production. However, with the rapid development of social economy, groundwater pollution has become an important environmental problem that threatens the ecosystem and human health. At the same time, a variety of typical organic pollutants with complex physical and chemical properties appear, such as tetrachlorethylene and polychlorinated biphenyls. These pollutants are denser than water and insoluble in water, which increases the difficulty of monitoring and preventing groundwater pollution. . In order to reduce the harm of typical pollutants in groundwater to human health and provide decisi...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0009] The simulation process of groundwater pollutant migration will be disturbed by various uncertain factors, such as the uncertainty of model parameters, the uncertainty of model structure and the error of observation data

These uncertainties often lead to low reliability of the simulated pollutant concentration, making the final health risk assessment results less accurate, which can easily lead to mistakes in groundwater management and decision-making, and waste manpower and material resources.

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