Photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information

Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information. Aiming at uncontrollability of photovoltaic power generation, a new on-line short-term prediction method for photovoltaic power generation is proposed, taking into account the direct factors influencing photovoltaic power generation, such as solar radiation, clouds, weather pollution and temperature, and changing the traditional prediction idea based on a complex photovoltaic generator model, being different from the classification and matching algorithm based on a large amount of historical data, and being different from the method based on low-precision cloud image acquisition and mobile prediction. The photovoltaic power generation on-line short-term prediction method based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information directly utilizes a low-cost industrial wide-angle camera to obtain sky brightness information to characterize the integrated state of solar radiation, clouds and weather pollution at the photovoltaic array field, utilizes the characteristics of dynamic correlation of the sky brightness information, and realizes the on-line short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on the actual output of the photovoltaic array collected in the field at the same time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of photovoltaic power generation, relates to image processing technology, and specifically relates to an online short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power generation power based on dynamic correlation of sky brightness information. Background technique [0002] Solar photovoltaic power generation is considered as an important alternative to conventional power generation due to its renewability and zero pollution. However, due to uncontrollable meteorological conditions, photovoltaic power generation cannot provide stable and continuous power supply like traditional power generation methods. It is of great significance to improve the stable operation of the power system including photovoltaic power generation system. [0003] The current photovoltaic power prediction methods mainly include: (1) Construct a photovoltaic power generation model based on solar radiation and the working mechanism of solar cells. T...

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Problems solved by technology

The disadvantage of this method is that a large amount of historical data is required, and the objective definition of similar days does not exist, so it is difficult to guarantee the efficiency and accuracy of prediction

(3) Considering the important influence of clouds on solar radiation, there are currently methods to obtain weather conditions from high altitudes through satellite cloud images, but their temporal and spatial resolutions are low; there are also methods to obtain weather conditions based on ground-based cloud images, but ground-based all-sky The imager is expensive, and the image distortion acquired by the fisheye lens has a great impact on the prediction accuracy

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