Multi-model comprehensive prediction method for photovoltaic powder based on synchronous extrusion wavelet transformation

Abstract

The invention provides a multi-model comprehensive prediction method for photovoltaic powder based on synchronous extrusion wavelet transformation. The multi-model comprehensive prediction method comprises the following steps: dividing photovoltaic historical data into four types including sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day and cloudy day according to different weather conditions; preprocessing eachtype of photovoltaic powder data by virtue of a synchronous extrusion wavelet transformation method, and decomposing the data into a series of modal functions with mutually exclusive characteristics;carrying out normalization processing on each modal function; determining an input variable set of each modal function; establishing a BP neural network, support vector machine and Gaussian process regression integrated multi-model comprehensive prediction method for each modal function; and overlapping prediction results of different modal functions, so as to obtain a final photovoltaic power short-term predicted value. According to the multi-model comprehensive prediction method, the prediction precision is effectively increased, the reliability of a prediction result is improved, and the problem of short-term prediction of the photovoltaic powder of a power system can be well solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power in a power system, which performs short-term prediction of new energy output in the power system, and belongs to the technical field of power systems. Background technique [0002] The superior performance of solar energy resources makes photovoltaic power generation technology increasingly present a large-scale development trend. Since the power generation of photovoltaic systems is closely related to seasonal types, weather types, and meteorological factors, its power changes are random and fluctuating, so large-scale photovoltaic systems are connected to the grid. challenge. Accurate prediction of photovoltaic system power generation can provide a reference for the power system dispatching department to adjust the dispatch plan in a timely manner, thereby effectively reducing the adverse impact of photovoltaic systems on the power grid. [0003] Scholars at home and abro...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the problems of low prediction accuracy and poor reliability of prediction results in the short-term prediction of photovoltaic power in the existing power system, the present invention provides a multi-model comprehensive prediction method of photovoltaic power based on synchronous squeeze wavelet transform to realize accurate short-term prediction of photovoltaic power predict

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