New-situation load potential prediction method for rural area

Abstract

The invention provides a new-situation load potential prediction method for a rural area. The method comprises the following steps that: according to family characteristics, a government input situation, market characteristics and a natural characteristic, analyzing an impact factor, and preliminarily constructing input-output index; utilizing SPSS (Statistic Package for Social Science) analysis software to screen the input-output index; according to a screening result, determining a final input-output index system; carrying out data processing on an input-output index vector; constructing rural electric energy to replace a recent potential analysis model; and applying a DEAP calculation tool to replace the recent potential analysis model and the input-output index system with the electricenergy of the rural area for prediction. The method has the beneficial effects that the research of the potential model replaced with the electric energy can more scientifically and accurately research and analyze rural area electric energy replacement work; and through the combination of a rural electric energy replacement potential value, the more reasonable rural electric energy replacement priority of each area is designed, and the influence of city haze for the life and production of residents can be more quickly gotten rid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a load potential prediction method, in particular to a new situation load potential prediction method in rural areas. Background technique [0002] my country's non-renewable energy is gradually decreasing, and more and more people propose to use clean energy to replace non-renewable energy. With the continuous development of industry, energy shortage is restricting economic development on the one hand, and on the other hand, the extensive use of fossil energy and other traditional energy supply methods have caused environmental pollution problems that affect human survival, especially in recent years. smog problem. [0003] At present, severe smog and smog occur frequently in northern regions such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, which seriously affects the lives of many citizens and poses a huge hidden danger to the health of Chinese people in the future. In most parts of northern China, the large increase in coal consumption...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] However, experts at home and abroad have done little comprehensive and specific research on electric energy substitution in rural areas. The research on electric energy substitution is limited to a certain part, and there are still few relevant policies and mechanisms that are conducive to electric energy substitution in China, especially It is the calculation of the electricity substitution amount of the specific main electricity energy substitution mode in rural areas. The research in the literature only stays at some opinions and suggestions on the future development direction and policies, but there is no relevant information on how to calculate the potential value of rural electricity substitution in each province in China. Research

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