Power purchase transaction method based on uncertainty factors and provincial load prediction

Abstract

The invention discloses a power purchase transaction method based on uncertainty factors and provincial load prediction, and relates to the technical field of electric power. The technical problem that uncertainty factors bring great difficulty to external power purchase plan making by power grid companies can be solved. The power purchase transaction method based on provincial load prediction comprises the following steps: S1, calculating probabilistic sequences of provincial load prediction, hydroelectric power generation capacity, and planned power generation capacity of thermal power plants; S2, getting a demand power probabilistic sequence of external power purchase through uncertain electric power and energy balancing; S3, calculating the power purchase adequacy based on the demand power probabilistic sequence; S4, dividing the 24 hours of a typical day of load into a high-load period, a medium-load period and a low-load period; S5, calculating the total amount of money needed for purchasing power in the three load periods of the typical day of load when the unit power of peak load period is purchased from different power sellers; and S6, determining the power purchase priority of each power seller.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power technology, in particular to an electricity purchase transaction method based on uncertain factors and load forecasting in the whole province. Background technique [0002] The economic and social development of the world today is increasingly dependent on electricity, and the security and adequacy of power supply has become a key factor for maintaining rapid economic and social development. However, limited by the resource distribution of power generation energy in my country, most of the new power generation installed capacity comes from coal bases and areas rich in water resources. The electricity load demand in the eastern coastal and economically developed provinces of my country accounts for more than two-thirds of the total load in the country, but power generation resources are very scarce. The proportion of water energy resources is less than 8%, and coal resources only account for about 10%...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a power purchase transaction method based on uncertain factors and load forecasting in the whole province, which can solve the problem that uncertain factors bring great difficulties to power grid companies when formulating outsourcing power purchase plans technical problem

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