Macro-forecast system and method thereof for future development of regional economy

Abstract

The present invention discloses a macro forecasting system and method for the future development of the regional economy, comprising the following steps: obtaining the microeconomic data of the regional development in different historical stages and different time frequencies related to the regional economic development; Economic data, combined with the macroeconomic development indicators of the corresponding time period, combined with the macro function of future development, constructs a macro forecast model for the future development of the region; The type of macro forecast is analyzed, and the important information hidden between the macro forecast and future development is further excavated, and the interaction mechanism and causal relationship between the system macro forecast and future economic development are revealed; the macro forecast method and sustainable development Combined, the sustainable development curve is constructed, and the time variation of the system's sustainable development level and the cause mechanism of economic growth are analyzed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of macroeconomics, and in particular relates to a macroscopic prediction system and method for the future development of regional economy. Background technique [0002] Different regions have large differences in both their economic structure and economic development level. Therefore, regional macroeconomic forecasting models are quite different from national macroeconomic forecasting models in terms of modeling principles and application of econometric methods. The basic theory of modeling used in the forecast period should also be different. The mutual influence relationship and degree of influence among different regional economic variables should be able to truly reflect the historical dynamic characteristics of the region's economy. Although the establishment of all macroeconomic forecasting models is based on economic theory and economic operation mechanism, due to the large uncertainty in the economic operatio...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] (2) Insufficient research on interdisciplinary and multi-method crossover and integration

[0010] (3) Insufficient research on the sustainable development mechanism of the economic system model

[0011] At present, there is such a deficiency in the process of using macro-forecasting methods to study the sustainable development of ecological and economic systems: that is, it is often limited to the description and evaluation of the sustainable development level of the system, and seldom involves the discussion of the impact mechanism of sustainable development.

Although some studies are involved, they only discuss the impact of macro-forecast input-output changes on the sustainable development level of the system.

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