Microgrid photovoltaic output space prediction method based on similar daily clustering

Abstract

The invention aims at defects in existing photovoltaic output predication through similar daily clustering, and provides a microgrid photovoltaic output space prediction method based on similar daily clustering. The microgrid photovoltaic output space prediction method belongs to the field of new energy output prediction and comprises the steps of establishing a spatial relationship by means of power generation data which are input and output of a photovoltaic power station in a microgrid in a training period for predicating the power generation data that are output from the photovoltaic power station in a prediction period; performing particlizing processing on the power generation data which are input into the power station in the training period and the prediction period; performing SOM neural network clustering training on the particlized data which are input into the power station in the training period; performing simulation classification on the particlized data which are input into the power station in the prediction period by means of an SOM neutral network; finding out similar days; and by means of similar day data, obtaining the predicted value of the power generation data through least square polynomial fitting. Compared with an existing method, the microgrid photovoltaic output space prediction method has advantages of simplifying researching objects, promoting clustering process and remarkably improving prediction precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of micro-grid photovoltaic output forecasting, and in particular relates to a micro-grid photovoltaic output space prediction method based on similar day clustering. Background technique [0002] As an important part of the smart grid, the microgrid is a small power generation and distribution system composed of distributed power sources, energy storage, loads, energy conversion devices, and monitoring and protection devices. Can operate in isolation, with self-control, protection and management functions. [0003] Solar photovoltaic power generation is a common form of micro-power generation in micro-grids. As a non-polluting clean energy and a sustainable energy alternative, solar photovoltaic power generation has received more and more attention, and it has become an important way for many countries in the world to develop new energy. [0004] In order to realize the self-control, protection and managem...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Directly based on weather and environmental factors, there are problems such as complex influencing factors, difficulty in obtaining data, and low detection accuracy

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