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Economic dispatching method based on general wind power forecasting error model

A technology of economic dispatch and prediction error, applied in wind power generation, load prediction in AC network, electrical components, etc., can solve problems such as large prediction error

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-08-10
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +4
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Although wind power prediction has made great progress through research and practice, its prediction error is still relatively large.

Method used

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  • Economic dispatching method based on general wind power forecasting error model
  • Economic dispatching method based on general wind power forecasting error model
  • Economic dispatching method based on general wind power forecasting error model

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Embodiment 1

[0062] Embodiment 1: a kind of economic dispatching method based on general wind power prediction error model, such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment specifically provides an application case of an economic dispatch method based on a general wind power forecasting error model, including the following steps:

[0063] S1: The wind power forecast sequence is obtained by the wind power forecasting algorithm and divided into uniform wind power forecast intervals:

[0064] The wind power forecast sequence is normalized and transformed into the interval [0, 1], and divided into M uniform intervals [0, 1 / M], [1 / M, 2 / M], ..., [(M-1) / M, 1], the length of each interval is 1 / M, the interval m is m=1, 2, ..., M, and the corresponding prediction power range is [(m-1) / M, m / M]; At each moment, the predicted power sequence is paired with the actual wind power output power. For each predicted value in the interval m, there is an actual value corresponding to it; thus a set of actual value...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an economic dispatching method based on a general wind power forecasting error model. General distribution is employed for fitting of PDF and CDF of practical wind power powers on different wind power forecasting intervals, the method is relatively suitable for wind power forecasting error modeling at any time scale and any amplitude, the model fitting precision is higher than conventional Gauss distribution and beta distribution, moreover, an improved linear sequence algorithm taking consideration of wind power forecasting nondeterminacy is employed and provides new thinking for calculating an economic dispatching problem containing wind power field nondeterminacy, as the general distribution CDF and the corresponding inverse function have specific analysis expressions, a general wind power forecasting model is employed to make differential operation have the specific analysis expression, and difficulty in solving an economic dispatching problem containing undetermined wind power access is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of new energy power generation in power systems, in particular to an economic dispatch method based on a general wind power prediction error model. Background technique [0002] Due to the influence of natural characteristics, geographical environment, wind farm's own conditions and other factors, wind power output has random fluctuations, and this is the root cause of wind power's impact on grid access. Wind power forecasting (WPF), as an important tool to ensure grid security and improve wind power efficiency, has been extensively researched and applied. The size and distribution of wind power prediction errors affect the required up / down reserve capacity of the system, the charging and discharging plan of the energy storage power station in the system, etc., and are of great significance to the safety and economy of power grid operation. [0003] Commonly used wind power forecasting techniques are mainly divided i...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00H02J3/38
CPCH02J3/00H02J3/003H02J3/386H02J2203/20Y02E10/76
Inventor 刘建坤卫鹏周前徐青山黄煜
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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