Short period wind power prediction system based on covariance preferable combination model

Abstract

The invention belongs to the wind electric power prediction technology field, and particularly relates to a short period wind power prediction system based on a covariance preferable combination model. The short period wind power prediction system based on a covariance preferable combination model comprises a data collection and storage model, a covariance preferable combination prediction module, a power prediction error analysis module and a real-time communication module. The data collection and storage module respectively transmits the collected data needed by wind power prediction and error analysis data to the covariance preferable combination prediction module and the power error analysis module to perform prediction on the wind power; the prediction result is transmitted to the power prediction error analysis module; the prediction data is transmitted to the real-time communication module; and the real-time communication module transmits the prediction data to a dispatching center in real time for service. The system and the method of the invention are simple and practical; the short period wind power prediction system is highly efficient and convenient and has function of real-time communication and self-regulation; the accuracy of the prediction algorithm is higher than that of the single physic model and the statistic model; and the development of wind power prediction is benefited.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power forecasting, in particular to a short-term wind power forecasting system based on a covariance optimal combination model. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is currently the renewable energy with the greatest potential for large-scale commercial development and utilization. Wind power generation is an effective way to utilize wind energy on a large scale, and it is also the most realistic choice for my country's energy and power sustainable development strategy. With the large-scale connection of wind farms to the main power grid, the power fluctuations of wind farms will have a certain impact on the stability of grid voltage and frequency, which in turn will affect the safe and stable operation of the grid. The power generation and consumption of the grid needs to be balanced at all times, and wind energy is an intermittent energy source. The active power output of wind farms changes wi...

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Problems solved by technology

Although the accuracy of this method is high, the combined forecasting model is complex and the forecasting program runs slowly

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