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Pipeline failure possibility evaluation method and system

An evaluation method and evaluation system technology, which is applied in the field of pipeline failure possibility evaluation method and system, can solve the problems of inability to evaluate oil and gas pipeline system risks, pipeline system monitoring and management safety hazards, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-08-03
CHINA SPECIAL EQUIP INSPECTION & RES INST +1
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Problems solved by technology

Existing risk assessment methods are still unable to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment on such a large and complex oil and gas pipeline system, thus bringing potential safety hazards to the monitoring and management of the pipeline system

Method used

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  • Pipeline failure possibility evaluation method and system
  • Pipeline failure possibility evaluation method and system
  • Pipeline failure possibility evaluation method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0050] The present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the possibility of pipeline failure. In order to make the purpose, technical solution and effect of the present invention clearer and clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.

[0051] See figure 1 , the pipeline failure possibility evaluation method provided by the present invention, comprises the steps:

[0052] S10. Establish a failure fault tree of the pipeline to be evaluated, determine a top event and a basic event, and obtain a minimum cut set. Specifically, collect the status and various parameters of the pipeline system; collect pipeline failure accident cases, conduct accident statistics, and list the possible accidents of the pipeline to be evaluated; determine the top event: the object to be analyzed is the top...

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Abstract

The present invention discloses a pipeline failure possibility evaluation method and system, wherein the evaluation method comprises the steps of establishing a failure fault tree of a to-be-evaluated pipeline, determining a top event and an elementary event, and obtaining a minimum cut set; dividing the grade of the elementary event, and obtaining the failure probability of the elementary event according to a fuzzy theory; according to the failure probability of the elementary event and the logic structure of the failure fault tree, obtaining the probability of the minimum cut set and the failure probability of the to-be-evaluated pipeline. According to the present invention, by utilizing the fault tree, the risk of the pipeline is calculated quantitatively, and the failure probability of the to-be-evaluated pipeline is obtained, so that the weak links can be searched effectively, the contingency plans and the protection measures can be made, and the safety of a pipeline system is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of risk assessment, in particular to a pipeline failure possibility assessment method and system. Background technique [0002] Risk is a comprehensive measure of the possibility of an accident and the severity of the consequences of the accident. The index to measure the size of the risk is called the risk rate or risk coefficient, which is equal to the product of the probability of the accident and the degree of the accident loss R=P×S. Among them, R is the risk rate; P is the probability of accident occurrence; S is the degree of accident loss. [0003] There are many methods of risk assessment, thirty or forty are currently used. Each method has its scope of application and application conditions, and its evaluation reasoning process, results obtained, information and data required for evaluation are different. It is necessary to select an appropriate risk assessment method based on the characteristics of the a...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/0635
Inventor 陈秋雄陈运文安成名黄辉陈钒陈立秋
Owner CHINA SPECIAL EQUIP INSPECTION & RES INST
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