Space power load prediction method based on load density coordination coefficient

Abstract

The invention brings forward a space power load prediction method based on a load density coordination coefficient. The method is characterized by comprising the steps of generating cells, determining classification load density coordination coefficients, solving classification load density indexes and establishing a model. Through introducing a new coordination coefficient calculation method, different load densities of the same kind of loads in the different cells and the development trend of the load density coordination coefficient of the same cell can be better demonstrated, and the problem of nonuniform distribution of the same kind of loads in the different cells can be overcome. According to the invention, deep excavation of historical load data is realized according to constraint relations between actually measured cell historical loads and power supply areas, land information and classification load densities, and the load on each unit area is predicted under specific power load space resolution. The method provided by the invention has the advantages of being scientific and reasonable and being easy and simple to implement, accuracy in prediction and high in adaptability, thereby being suitable for city space load prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a spatial electric load forecasting method based on load density coordination coefficient, which is suitable for spatial load forecasting of power grids. Background technique [0002] The main task of Spatial Load Forecasting (SLF) is to predict the location and size of future loads, which is an indispensable part of urban power grid planning. The prediction results are the basis for determining the capacity and distribution of power supply equipment required. The accuracy of the results has a profound impact on the economy and safety of urban power grid construction and operation. [0003] The SLF method is mainly classified from the theory of forecasting algorithm, which can be generally divided into: trend method, multivariate method, land use simulation method, and load density index method. The prediction accuracy of the trend method is not high, so it is not commonly used at present; the multivariate method requires rela...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to propose a scientific and reasonable, highly applicable, and effective space power load forecasting method based on the coordination coefficient of load density. By introducing a new coordination coefficient algorithm, it can better reflect the similar loads in different cells. Different load densities, as well as the development trend of the coordination coefficient of the load density of the same cell, and can overcome the problem of uneven distribution of similar loads in different cells; Constraint relationship among them, realizing in-depth mining of historical load data and spatial power load forecasting

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