Power distribution network equipment demand prediction and quantitative method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a power distribution network equipment demand prediction and quantitative method and system. Based on history demand condition, current equipment amount, equipment reliability and equipment running climatic environment factor quantized data of the power distribution network equipment, demand per month of distribution network repair materials is predicted by an SVM (support vector machine). According to fund occupation condition of the power distribution network to the equipment, the power distribution network equipment is divided into core equipment and important equipment by the aid of the primary and secondary analytic method, and spare part safe stock and target stock levels of the power distribution network equipment are determined in the phase review way and the fixed order batch way, thus the power distribution network equipment is quantified. The quantitative data is more accurate and reliable and applicable to power distribution network material reserve quantity determination process, in this way, overstocked products are reduced, and material reserve efficiency and duration is improved, so that safety and economy of the power grid production are guaranteed, and utilization rate is enhanced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power engineering, in particular to a method and system for forecasting and quantifying the demand of distribution network equipment used in distribution network emergency repair material reserves. Background technique [0002] Behind the rapid growth of grid scale, safe and reliable electricity consumption cannot be ignored. In order to effectively improve the reliability of power grid power supply and effectively ensure the effective supply of equipment and accessories, a series of supporting functional departments such as warehousing and logistics have been established within the power supply enterprise-logistics center. [0003] The spare parts of distribution network emergency repair materials greatly affect the fault repair ability of distribution network, which is related to the service level of power enterprises to terminal power users. The power equipment involved in the distribution ne...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] It can be seen that the problem of forecasting and quantifying spare parts reserves for distribution network equipment is a technical problem that conforms to objective laws. However, at present, the inventory level is still formulated manually based on historical quantification and actual repair material demand in previous years. The quantitative scheme adopted is often not applicable to the actual situation of distribution network equipment

There is still a lack of effective scientific algorithms for the forecasting and quantification of distribution network equipment demand for inventory in engineering applications

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