Reliability assessment method for independent wind-solar-storage system based on energy storage probability model

Abstract

The invention discloses a reliability evaluation method of an independent wind and light storage system based on an energy storage probability model. The reliability evaluation method comprises the following steps of (1) clustering by utilizing an FCM (Fuzzy C Means) algorithm to obtain discrete states and corresponding probabilities of wind resource and light resource in different periods of typical days; (2) putting forward an analytical model powered by multiple batch-type power supplies (draught fans and photovoltaic power systems) based on wind and light clustering results; (3) putting forward multi-period energy storage battery probability models considering equipment failure; (4) building an analytical model of a system through a convolution method on the basis of the analytical model and the multi-period energy storage battery probability models, and computing a reliability index of the system by using a full year as an evaluation period. Compared with a traditional method based on a probability density function, the reliability evaluation method of the independent wind and light storage system based on the energy storage probability model, disclosed by the invention, has the advantages that needed historical data are less, the state diving is more typical, and the reliability evaluation method is beneficial for increasing the computing efficiency of an analytical method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reliability evaluation of micro-grids, in particular to a method for evaluating the reliability of an independent wind-solar-storage system based on an energy storage probability model. Background technique [0002] In an environment where renewable energy power generation technology is becoming more and more mature, the independent micro-grid system, as an effective form of combining multiple renewable energy sources, is not only an important means to solve the power supply problems in remote areas such as islands and mountainous areas, but also realizes the advantages of renewable energy. Complementary, improve the energy efficiency of the whole system. Compared with a single solar-storage or wind-storage system, an independent micro-grid that jointly utilizes wind and solar resources can more actively realize wind and solar complementarity, which can further reduce system construction costs and improve system po...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, since the State of Charge (SOC) of the energy storage device has time continuity, it is difficult to directly express it through the probability model. In an independent microgrid system with energy storage equipment

In addition, most of the existing analytical methods are based on the probability density functions of wind speed and light intensity to obtain different wind speeds, light intensity levels and corresponding probabilities. low probability states, thus increasing the computational burden

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