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Modeling method for medium and long term power load forecasting

A technology of power load and prediction model, applied in the field of electric power, which can solve the problems of inability to adjust, rigid weight selection, and difficulty in obtaining prediction effects.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-12-10
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD +1
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Problems solved by technology

However, traditional combined forecasting methods are mostly fixed forecasting methods, and the weight selection is relatively rigid, which cannot be adjusted according to the actual forecasting situation, and it is difficult to obtain good forecasting results

Method used

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  • Modeling method for medium and long term power load forecasting
  • Modeling method for medium and long term power load forecasting
  • Modeling method for medium and long term power load forecasting

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Embodiment 1

[0054] Such as figure 1 Shown is a flow chart of a specific embodiment of a method for establishing a mid-to-long-term electric load forecasting model in the present invention. see figure 1 , the specific steps of a method for establishing a medium- and long-term power load forecasting model in this specific embodiment include:

[0055] Step S101. Divide power demand into multiple layers according to industry and industry, extract historical power data, form a forecasted measurement matrix, and construct an initial load trend model according to the predicted measurement matrix; wherein, as figure 2 As shown, the multi-layer division of electricity demand by industry and industry can be carried out as follows:

[0056] The annual electricity consumption is divided into three categories according to industry: industrial electricity Y1, agricultural electricity Y2, commercial and residential electricity Y3;

[0057] According to the industry, industrial electricity is divided...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a modeling method for medium and long term power load forecasting. The modeling method comprises the following steps: dividing power demand in multiple layers according to industry and trade, extracting history data to form a forecasting matrix, and constructing an initial load trend model; extracting influence factors and analyzing the degree of correlation of forecasts, and determining the important influence factors of each forecast; forming a forecasting method base; extracting maximum load Pmax, annual average load and annual minimum load Pmin as key load indexes, and analyzing the characteristics and rules appearing in Pmax and Pmin and a forecasting method thereof; selecting the forecasting method to forecast the forecasts in a combined mode, carrying out curve fitting on forecasting results and the history data to obtain the development trend of the forecasts, and constructing a load trend model; amending the parameters of the load trend model and the weight of the forecasting method according to load influence factors and influence weights, and establishing a comprehensive load forecasting model. The modeling method has great advantages for improving the reliability of the power load forecasting and analyzing the inherent law of power load.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power, and more specifically, to a method for establishing a medium- and long-term electric load forecasting model. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and the basis of power system economic operation, which is extremely important to power system planning and operation. Improving the level of load forecasting technology is conducive to planning power consumption management, rationally arranging power grid operation mode and unit maintenance plan, is conducive to saving coal, fuel and reducing power generation costs, is conducive to formulating a reasonable power supply construction plan, and improving the economic benefits and benefits of the power system. social benefits. Medium and long-term power load forecasting is the basis of power grid planning. Its importance is not only reflected in the planning process of power grid status an...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/50
Inventor 姚建刚吴鸿亮付强金小明杨柳董楠周保荣康童
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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