A method to improve the accuracy of storm surge disaster risk prediction

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for improving storm surge disaster risk predication accuracy. The method comprises the following steps that a storm surge disaster scene is built based on a scene analysis method; a storm surge disaster three-dimensional numerical simulation method is provided; a multi-mode multiobjective flood refuge optimal path selection model is built; the provided storm surge disaster three-dimensional numerical simulation method specifically comprises the steps that (1) the three-dimensional network model of the regional terrain is built; (2) the SST k-omega flood routing three-dimensional turbulent model of a coupling VOF method is built; (3) a three-dimensional risk drawing is drawn based on the three-dimensional numerical simulation result. The factuality and the visualization effect of flood dynamic real-time flowing and disaster time distribution are increased; a multi-mode multiobjective emergency path decentralization model is used for further improving the completeness and reasonability of an emergency refuge system, a disaster contingency plan is effectively made, and a multi-module coupling, high-completeness and high-practicality storm surge disaster risk analysis system is provided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical fields of civil construction and water conservancy engineering, in particular to a method for improving the risk prediction accuracy of storm surge disasters. Background technique [0002] As the first marine disaster, storm surge disaster has been highly valued by the country and the government, and the research on disaster has naturally become the top priority. At present, the main means of studying storm surge disasters is numerical simulation, which includes numerical simulation of disaster forecast and numerical simulation of disaster flood inundation. The invention aims to solve the problems in the real-time dynamic simulation of flood after the storm surge disaster occurs, the temporal and spatial distribution of the disaster and the formulation of the emergency plan, and provide strong technical support for the disaster prevention and reduction project of the storm surge. [0003] In foreign storm surge d...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Judging from a series of studies and applications at home and abroad, the research on storm surge disasters is mostly based on a single aspect and a single scenario of overflow, floodplain, or embankment failure based on simple assumptions, and no logical analysis has been formed. The complex scenario analysis system of storm surge disasters including floodplain, overflow, embankment break, over-wave and other phenomena, the research on disaster scenarios is not comprehensive, and the ability to comprehensively reflect is poor; the numerical simulation of a single scenario is still limited to The two-dimensional or even one-dimensional hydrodynamic model has a certain gap with the three-dimensional flow of the actual storm surge flood; the research on emergency shelter of storm surge flood is often the solution calculation of a single optimization objective for a single evacuation mode of personnel evacuation or vehicle evacuation, emergency The effectiveness and applicability of the program need to be improved

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