On-line prediction method for reliability of factory-level multiple generator units

Abstract

The invention provides an on-line prediction method for the reliability of factory-level multiple generator units, and is characterized by comprising the following specific steps of: reading the event data of the reliability of the factory-level multiple generator units; calculating the reliability index of the factory-level multiple generator units; calculating the overhauling factor rho (tij) of the factory-level multiple generator units on line; tracking the reliability change tendency of the factory-level multiple generator units; determining the undetermined parameters eta j and mj of a factory-level 1-N generator unit; calculating the planned outage factor (POF) (t(n+1)j) of the factory-level multiple generator units; calculating the deduction planned outage equivalent available coefficient EAF (t(n+1)j) of the factory-level multiple generator units; calculating the equivalent available coefficient EAF (t(n+1)j) of the factory-level multiple generator units; calculating the average weighted equivalent available coefficient (WEAF) of the factory-level multiple generator units; determining the assessment criterion value of the equivalent available coefficients of the factory-level multiple generator units; carrying out quantitative evaluation on the reliability of the factory-level multiple generator units; and printing an output result. According to the on-line prediction method for factory-level multiple generator units, which is disclosed by the invention, the on-line prediction of the reliability of the factory-level multiple generator units is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an online reliability prediction method for multiple generator sets at the plant level, and belongs to the technical field of generator sets and power generation engineering. Background technique [0002] Equivalent availability factor EAF is an important index to evaluate the reliability and availability of generator sets. For in-service generator sets, the invention patent "A Prediction Method for Availability of Thermal Power Generator Sets", application number 200910050273.6, has been applied for quantitatively predicting the equivalent availability coefficient of a single generator in service in the current year. The power industry standard "Reliability Evaluation Regulations for Power Generation Equipment" (DL / T793) conducts statistical analysis on the operation history data of generator sets, and can obtain the statistical results of the equivalent availability coefficient of a single generator set every year, and can al...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The existing statistical methods for the reliability of generator sets and the prediction methods for the availability of a single generator set are still unable to quantitatively predict the equivalent availability coefficient of multiple generator sets at the plant level of the power generation enterprise in the use stage.

At present, there is no suitable device and method available for the quantitative prediction of the reliability of multiple generator sets at the plant level

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