Origin-destination (OD) estimation method for traffic demand of port roadway based on freight processes

Abstract

The invention discloses an origin-destination (OD) estimation method for the traffic demand of a port roadway based on freight processes. The method is based on an activity theory, the entire freight logistics procedure is taken as a research unit, the main traffic generation and attraction point of a harbor district is taken as a starting point, and the typical freight logistics procedure of cargo vehicles in the harbor district is taken as an analysis object. Under the precondition of obtaining these basic data which are the basic parameters of the storage yards of the harbor district, the flow rate of each egress and ingress sluice gate in the harbor district and the collecting and distributing proportion of a dock roadway, the cargo quantity of each storage yard and the cargo collecting and distributing quantity of the dock roadway are estimated, the attraction intensity of each sluice gate, each storage yard and each dock in the harbor district is analyzed, the selective probability of different travelling routes of different freight process modes is also calculated, the generation and attraction quantity of each OD pair of the harbor district is estimated so as to obtain an OD matrix for the traffic generation and attraction of a port roadway, finally a macroscopic model of the harbor district is constructed by utilizing a VISUM, the OD of the harbor district is inversed according to the measured flow rate, and the relative error of the OD matrix and the OD is compared so as to verify the reliability of model estimation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of traffic planning, in particular to a port road traffic demand OD estimation method based on freight flow. Background technique [0002] Traffic demand forecasting is one of the core contents of traffic planning and the basis of rational planning of traffic transportation system. The formulation of traffic development policy, traffic network design and program evaluation are all closely related to traffic demand forecasting. In 1962, the prediction method of "generation-distribution-mode division-allocation" was proposed in the traffic planning research of Chicago, USA, which marked the formation of the "four-stage" traffic prediction model. [0003] From the perspective of the development of the traffic demand forecasting model, so far, the traffic demand forecasting model can be divided into three generations, the first generation is the urban traffic planning system model, represented by the four-stage method, t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In addition, compared with urban areas, the port area is relatively small, with fewer pedestrians and slower vehicle speeds. The road layout and traffic management are also very different from urban traffic, because the four-stage method is simply used to predict port traffic. District road traffic volume demand is not very suitable for

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