Improved fault tree analysis process for environment risk evaluation

Abstract

The invention discloses an improved fault tree analysis method for environmental risk evaluation. The improved fault tree analysis method is characterized in that membership degree set method is introduced into the fault tree analysis; and a weighted average method is adopted to calculate the membership degree of the upper level event according to the membership degree of the lower level event without erasing the value or contribute of any factor. During environmental risk evaluation, the method can overcome 'this or that' disadvantages of the prior fault tree analysis method to achieve scientific environmental risk evaluation method and ensure scientific and reasonable results, thereby more effectively performing the functions of environmental risk prediction and fault prevention of the environmental risk evaluation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of environmental risk assessment, and in particular relates to an improved fault tree analysis method for environmental risk assessment. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the global economy, various sudden environmental risk accidents have occurred, such as the explosion accident of the Pabor pesticide plant in India in 1984, the leakage of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986, and the Jilin Songhua accident in my country in 2005. River pollution and Guangdong Beijiang cadmium pollution incidents have caused serious harm to human health and the ecological environment. Therefore, people are paying more and more attention to preventing environmental risks from the source, evaluating the possibility and consequences of environmental risk events, and thus proposing rationalized programs or measures to reduce environmental risks. It can be seen that environmental risk assessment is ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method only sets two possibilities of "0" and "1" for the state of any event in the fault tree, or in other words, it uses the "either-or" thinking method; 2) According to the decomposition of the fault tree It is true that some minimal cut sets can lead to "results" from "causes", but this is only a qualitative conclusion and cannot be analyzed quantitatively (Vaurio, J.K.. Fault tree analysis of phased mission systems with repairable and non-repairable components[J ]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2001, 74(2): 169-180)

Therefore, the analysis of the cause of the accident by the fault tree analysis method is a strong point, but it is a weak point when it is applied to the possibility of accidents caused by the cause.

[0006] According to the characteristics of the fault tree analysis method, the present invention combines the basic concept and method of fuzzy mathematics, uses the possibility distribution in fuzzy mathematics to improve the fault tree analysis method, and discusses the application of fuzzy mathematics in the fault tree analysis method from this new angle , there is no relevant report

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