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Insect-borne infectious disease transmission risk prediction method and device

A risk prediction and infectious disease technology, applied in the field of risk prediction of vector-borne infectious diseases, can solve the problems of forecasting and inability to realize the transmission risk of scrub typhus

Pending Publication Date: 2022-05-20
INST OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCI & NATURAL RESOURCE RES CAS
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Although the scientific community has studied the climate-tsutsugamushi association for decades at different temporal and spatial scales, predictions of the risk of scrub typhus transmission, especially in the context of climate warming, remain elusive

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  • Insect-borne infectious disease transmission risk prediction method and device
  • Insect-borne infectious disease transmission risk prediction method and device
  • Insect-borne infectious disease transmission risk prediction method and device

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[0070] Reference will now be made in detail to the exemplary embodiments, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, the same numerals in different drawings refer to the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary examples do not represent all implementations consistent with the present invention. Rather, they are merely examples of apparatuses and methods consistent with aspects of the invention as recited in the appended claims.

[0071] figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting the transmission risk of an insect-borne infectious disease according to an exemplary embodiment, as shown in figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0072] Step S101, obtaining historical case data of insect-borne infectious diseases nationwide and matching local climate and environment data; preferably, the insect-borne infectio...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an insect-borne infectious disease transmission risk prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining historical case data of insect-borne infectious diseases throughout the country and local climate environment data matched with the historical case data; taking the historical case data as dependent variables, taking local climate environment data as independent variables, performing modeling analysis based on a generalized additive hybrid model, and verifying model precision under different strategies to obtain an optimal fitting model; obtaining predicted meteorological data of future preset time; and according to the meteorological data of the future preset time and the optimal fitting model, in combination with different climatic change scenes, predicting the spatial and temporal distribution of the insect-borne infectious diseases of the future preset time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a method and device for predicting the transmission risk of insect-borne infectious diseases. Background technique [0002] The potential impact of climate change on public health has become one of the most challenging environmental issues, and the impact of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vector-borne diseases has long stimulated a great deal of research interest. Given the lack of homeostasis mechanisms for infectious agents (i.e., bacteria and viruses) and their associated vector organisms (i.e., mosquitoes and mites), many aspects of their biology (e.g., reproduction and survival rates) are highly vulnerable to climate change. This fact, combined with the ongoing threat posed by vector-borne diseases to public health and economies in many regions, makes quantifying the impact of climate change on these diseases critical. [0003] Scrub typhus...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80Y02A90/10
Inventor 江东丁方宇郝蒙蒙付晶莹
Owner INST OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCI & NATURAL RESOURCE RES CAS
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