Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation power prediction method which comprises the following steps: acquiring meteorological data and historical power generation power data of a photovoltaic power station in a certain region at the same moment, supplementing missing data and removing abnormal data; and analyzing and quantifying meteorological factors and historical power generation power on a prediction day, and unifying the dimension of the corrected data by adopting data normalization. Constructing a combined SVM model; constructing an isolated forest model; and comparing predicted power output by the model with theoretical power, outputting a prediction result when an error is within an allowable range, and performing iterative correction until the error meets the requirement when the error does not meet the requirement; and inputting a training set and a test set of the historical power into a power generation prediction model to obtain predicted power. The method can reduce the prediction error, improves the prediction precision, effectively improves the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation, and is higher in generalization capability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] In the context of energy depletion and increasingly serious environmental pollution, photovoltaic power generation has become a new hot spot for new energy power generation due to its clean, low-carbon, and renewable advantages. Since the photovoltaic power generation is easily affected by the weather, it has greater volatility and instability. At the same time, the large-scale grid connection of photovoltaics will have a certain impact on the operational safety and operational efficiency of the existing power system. Therefore, finding a prediction method with high prediction accuracy and small prediction error is of great significance for improving the economic benefits of photovoltaic power generation. At present, photovoltaic power generation is mainly used for short-term forecasting and ultra-short-term forecasting, and forecasting metho...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The power prediction of photovoltaic power generation is closely related to the historical power generation power and meteorological data of photovoltaic power plants, and the use of a single prediction model can no longer meet the existing prediction needs

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