Drought propagation time calculation method based on conditional probability high temporal-spatial resolution

Abstract

The invention discloses a drought propagation time calculation method based on conditional probability high spatial-temporal resolution, which comprises the following steps of: step 1, collecting specified rainfall data and soil humidity data, and processing the rainfall data and the soil humidity data into a ten-day scale sequence to obtain gridding rainfall data and soil humidity data with high spatial resolution; step 2, calculating a standardized rainfall index, and calculating a standardized soil humidity index; step 3, establishing joint distribution with an optimal dependency relationship between the standardized rainfall index and the standardized soil humidity index; and step 4, calculating the occurrence probability of agricultural drought caused under different levels of meteorological drought conditions, setting a threshold interval, and if the occurrence probability of the agricultural drought reaches a threshold value requirement, obtaining the propagation time from the meteorological drought to the agricultural drought. According to the method, the calculation precision of the drought propagation time is improved, and guidance can be provided for agricultural water resource management and agricultural drought prevention.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of drought management and response, particularly to a high spatial and temporal resolution based on the conditional probability arid propagation time calculating method. Background technique [0002] Drought is due to the chronic shortage of rainfall caused by extreme natural disasters, the impact of drought on agricultural production is particularly serious. Due to drought caused grain production accounts for over 60% of food losses caused by various natural disasters. The source of agricultural drought in the arid weather, especially in rainfed agricultural areas, due to lack of irrigation facilities, the meteorological drought often leads to severe agricultural drought. Weather to determine the propagation time agricultural drought is of great significance to agricultural drought early warning; [0003] Assessment methods in the past for meteorological drought to agricultural drought propagation time i...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a drought propagation time calculation method based on conditional probability and high temporal and spatial resolution, which solves the problem that the actual agricultural drought early warning and the integrity of the method theory in the current evaluation method of agricultural drought propagation time need to be further improved

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