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Power demand prediction framework considering multiple dimensions and multiple factors

A power demand, multi-factor technology, applied in the field of power demand forecasting system framework based on multi-dimensional and multi-factor, can solve problems such as insufficient consideration of influencing factors and lack of a unified forecasting framework, so as to improve the accuracy of power forecasting and improve the system framework theory. and practical methods, the effect of theoretical science

Pending Publication Date: 2021-11-12
RES INST OF ECONOMICS & TECH STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to design a multi-dimensional and multi-factor based power demand forecasting framework to solve the problems of insufficient consideration of influencing factors and lack of a unified forecasting framework in the process of power demand forecasting

Method used

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  • Power demand prediction framework considering multiple dimensions and multiple factors
  • Power demand prediction framework considering multiple dimensions and multiple factors
  • Power demand prediction framework considering multiple dimensions and multiple factors

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Embodiment Construction

[0020] The technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below. In the description of the present invention, it is obvious that the embodiments described below are some of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0021] (1) Clarify the power demand indicators, mainly including medium and long-term regional overall economy and power consumption forecast data, regional power consumption forecast data of three industries, power consumption forecast data of prefecture-level cities, four major energy-consuming industries and residential power consumption forecast data.

[0022] (2) Inductive analysis of dimensions and factors that affect power demand forecasting, the main steps are as follows:

[0023] ① Dicker...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power demand prediction framework considering multiple dimensions and multiple factors. According to the framework, the invention includes analyzing and determining macroscopic, mesoscopic, industrial and special event impact factors influencing power demand increase; performing factor analysis based on ADF, regression analysis and other methods, and determining dimensions and factor types influencing power demand prediction; performing medium and long term power demand data prediction through a GRE model and a GMM generalized moment estimation model; and finally, checking the predicted data according to the night light big data and a neural network algorithm so as to judge the economic and power consumption trend of the regional population, each prefecture-level city and industry development. According to the invention, a complete, specific and scientific electric power prediction framework considering multiple dimensions and multiple factors is effectively constructed, and a good system framework theory and practical operation method is provided for improving the electric power prediction precision.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power demand analysis and prediction, and in particular relates to a multi-dimensional and multi-factor based power demand forecasting system framework. Background technique: [0002] Power demand analysis and forecasting is an important daily work of dispatching operation departments and power service departments at all levels of the power system, and is the main basis for formulating power generation plans and transmission schemes. Improving the technical level of load analysis and forecasting is conducive to planning power consumption management, rationally arranging power grid operation mode and unit maintenance plan, helping to save coal, oil and power generation costs, formulate a reasonable power supply construction plan, and improve the economic benefits of the power system and social benefits. [0003] However, based on economic transformation and key industry development, regional pattern and main funct...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q30/02G06Q50/06G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06Q10/06393G06Q30/0201G06Q30/0202G06Q50/06G06N3/04G06N3/08Y02P90/82Y04S10/50Y04S50/14
Inventor 薛万磊鉴庆之王鹏赵昕陈博刘知凡李晨辉史英李校莹徐楠杨雍琦牛华忠王振坤孔德秋胡桂彬
Owner RES INST OF ECONOMICS & TECH STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER
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