Photovoltaic power generation power short-term prediction method based on GRA-ABC-Elman model

Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation power short-term prediction method based on a GRA-ABC-Elman model. The method mainly comprises the steps of collecting historical power generation power data of a photovoltaic power station and meteorological information of a meteorological station in a corresponding time period as meteorological and power sample data; removing abnormal and repeated data in the meteorological data, performing grey relational analysis on all features, and extracting important features as a training input set of a neural network; establishing an Elman neural network, determining a network topology structure, and initializing various parameters of the network topology structure; continuously optimizing the weight and the threshold of the Elman neural network by using an artificial bee colony algorithm; establishing a photovoltaic power generation power short-term prediction model by using the optimized network, and inputting meteorological-power sample data for training; and inputting the meteorological information of the to-be-predicted day into the trained prediction model, and predicting the generated power of the to-be-predicted day. The short-term power generation power of the photovoltaic power station can be accurately predicted, and power grid dispatching operation is facilitated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a short-term forecasting method for photovoltaic power generation based on a GRA-ABC-Elman model. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the problem of environmental pollution has become more and more serious, the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction in various countries in the world have been continuously improved, and the global demand for electric energy has increased year by year. Therefore, the development and utilization of renewable energy is an important way to solve the energy crisis. Photovoltaic power generation has quickly become a hot spot of world attention and research due to its unique charm of being clean, pollution-free and inexhaustible. However, meteorological environmental factors make its output highly fluctuating and intermittent, which affects the stability of photovoltaics after grid connection. , making it diffic...

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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no research on applying the GRA-ABC-Elman model to the short-term power prediction of photovoltaic power plants in published literature and patents

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