Ultra-short-term wind power plant power prediction method combined with meteorological factors

Abstract

An ultra-short-term wind power plant power prediction method combined with meteorological factors belongs to the technical field of power generation power prediction of a power system, and comprises the following steps: step 1, preprocessing wind power historical data and NWP meteorological data, supplementing missing data and modifying abnormal data; 2, generating a wind power prediction model; and 3, carrying out future wind power prediction by utilizing the trained model and future NWP meteorological data. According to the method, new firefly individuals are periodically added into the population by using a chaos strategy in the iteration process, so that the prediction precision of the ultra-short-term wind power is improved, and a favorable basis is provided for scheduling personnel of a power grid department to perform short-term scheduling decision arrangement.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system power forecasting, and in particular relates to an ultra-short-term wind farm power forecasting method combined with meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's wind power generation has developed rapidly. By the end of 2015, my country's total installed wind power capacity had reached 128.3 million kW, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. By 2020, my country's wind power installed capacity is expected to reach more than 240 million kW. Compared with hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power and other energy sources, wind power generation is mainly determined by natural conditions such as wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, temperature, humidity, etc., and has the characteristics of intermittent, fluctuating, and random. Large-scale wind power grid integration has brought challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power gr...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the above technical problems, the present invention proposes an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method combined with meteorological factors to improve the low accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power predictions faced by current wind farms, and to facilitate the participation of wind farms in wind power grid integration. Scheduling, providing the staff of the power grid department with an accurate basis for dispatching decisions

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