Logistics material prediction method based on gray model

Abstract

The invention discloses a logistics material prediction method based on a gray model, and relates to the technical field of material demand prediction, and the technical scheme is characterized in that the logistics material prediction method specifically comprises the following steps: S1, building a logistics material consumption prediction model; S2, performing self-correction on the material consumption prediction model established in the step S1, and correcting parameters of the material consumption prediction model when the fitness of the material consumption prediction model is lower than a threshold value; and S3, according to the step S1 and the step S2, establishing a multi-stage material consumption prediction and early warning system and a synchronization mechanism. According tothe method, the idea of piecewise linearization is adopted, local linearization processing is carried out according to the consumption speeds of different types of logistics materials in different stages, and meanwhile, a plurality of linearization models are adopted in the whole process to approach the nonlinear process, so that the calculation difficulty of the material consumption prediction problem can be greatly simplified, and the material consumption prediction accuracy can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of material demand forecasting, more specifically, it relates to a logistic material forecasting method based on a gray model. Background technique [0002] Forecasting the consumption of logistics materials in the disaster area is more important in the forecasting of logistics materials demand, but it is also a relatively difficult prediction, because the prediction of logistics material consumption is a dynamic calculation process with the deepening of the rescue mission in the disaster area. This dynamic calculation process is affected by various uncertain factors such as logistics support style and logistics support environment, so that the logistics material consumption process presents nonlinear and staged characteristics. The non-linearity and phases of the consumption process of logistics materials in disaster areas are determined by the characteristics of modern rescue in disaster areas. The consum...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the process of logistics support for disaster area rescue, there are many factors that affect the consumption rate of logistics materials. In addition, there are many types of logistics materials. It is very difficult to establish a mechanism model for logistics material demand forecasting for logistics support. The lack of research on the internal mechanism of the object does not give sufficient consideration to some important parameters that affect the prediction results. The establishment of an experimental model for the prediction of logistics material consumption speed will lead to large errors in the prediction results. There is still a certain lag in the correction

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