Method for calculating optimal climate pattern to simulate tropical cyclonic activity performance

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating an optimal climate mode to simulate tropical cyclone activity performance. The method comprises the following steps: collecting related information, and calculating two-dimensional field distribution of tropical cyclone path density, a path density simulation value, a path type simulation value, a monthly change simulation value, a comprehensive simulation performance value and global comprehensive simulation performance values of a plurality of climate modes; sorting the comprehensive simulation performance values, and finally obtaining an optimal mode for simulating tropical cyclone activity in multiple climate modes. According to the invention, the tropical cyclonic activity simulation capabilities of a plurality of climate modes are quantitatively compared; based on the multi-aspect characteristics of the path and the frequency of the tropical cyclone, the influence of the simulation capability of the mode in different sea areas on the total simulation capability in the global range is combined, and the sorting of quantitative values can be given, so the performance value result is more objective and real, and the advantages anddisadvantages of the weather mode on the tropical cyclone activity simulation performance can be more intuitively expressed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of environmental climate, in particular to a method for calculating the performance of an optimal climate model for simulating tropical cyclone activity. Background technique [0002] Tropical cyclones may be the most destructive natural disasters, and their passages bring great threats and losses to people's lives and property. Therefore, accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone activities can greatly reduce casualties and property losses. Numerical simulation is an effective method for studying tropical cyclone activities in recent years, especially for the study of climatological laws of tropical cyclone activities, in which climate models play an important role. However, due to the influence of resolution and other factors, not all climate models can simulate tropical cyclone activities well, and the accuracy of climate models in simulating tropical cyclone activities will directly affect the relevant re...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

First of all, the content of judging the performance of the simulated tropical cyclone activity in the above method is relatively single, and the characteristics of tropical cyclone activity considered by various methods are not comprehensive enough, for example, only the frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence or the classification of tropical cyclone track are considered.

Secondly, the above method does not form a quantitative calculation index, and the judgment of model simulation performance is limited to the level of qualitative analysis, and the results are affected by subjective judgments

Thirdly, the above methods generally only calculate the model’s performance in simulating tropical cyclone activity in a single sea area, or even if the simulation capability of the global sea area is judged, it does not take into account the influence of the model’s simulation ability in each sea area on the overall simulation effect on a global scale degree of difference

Finally, none of the above methods has formed a portable judgment standard, and its use has great limitations

Therefore, there are still technical gaps in computing the performance of climate models in simulating tropical cyclone activity

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