Short-term traffic flow prediction method and system based on Bayesian optimization

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a short-term traffic flow prediction method and system based on Bayesian optimization. The method comprises the steps of: collecting original traffic flow data passing through a fixed road position in a fixed time interval, carrying out preprocessing on the original traffic flow data according to a seasonal model algorithm to generate time sequence trafficflow data; constructing a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on a support vector regression machine, and training the short-term traffic flow prediction model; calculating a mean absolutepercentage error of the short-term traffic flow prediction model, and acquiring the prediction precision of the short-term traffic flow prediction model according to the mean absolute percentage error; optimizing the model parameters corresponding to the prediction precision according to a Bayesian optimization algorithm until a target short-term traffic flow prediction model is generated; and predicting the short-term traffic flow according to the target short-time traffic flow prediction model. According to the embodiment of the invention, the generalization ability of the short-term traffic flow prediction model is improved, the prediction precision is improved, and convenience is provided for intelligent traffic.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of intelligent transportation, in particular to a short-term traffic flow prediction method and system based on Bayesian optimization. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the development of the economy and the increasing demand for convenient transportation, the number of cars has experienced rapid growth, which has brought enormous pressure on limited road resources. With the continuous development of science and technology in the field of transportation, the concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) has been proposed. We expect to use big data and various intelligent algorithm technologies to integrate Consider the information of people, vehicles, roads and so on, and formulate a reasonable traffic route to improve the efficiency of vehicle operation, thereby reducing the pressure on road traffic. Intelligent transportation system has become an effective strategy to alleviate traf...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In view of the above technical problems, the embodiment of the present invention provides a short-term traffic flow prediction method and system based on Bayesian optimization, which can solve the problem of poor generalization ability and low prediction accuracy of short-term traffic flow prediction algorithms in the prior art technical issues

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