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Wind power and photovoltaic consumption prediction and early warning method

A photovoltaic and wind power technology, applied in the electric power field, can solve the problems of wind curtailment and the uncertainty of new energy output.

Pending Publication Date: 2020-04-17
STATE GRID LIAONING ECONOMIC TECHN INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] Due to the strong uncertainty in the change of wind speed and light intensity, the output of new energy is also uncertain.
At present, the power balance of the power system is mainly achieved by adjusting the power output of coal generating units. However, due to the influence of power supply structure and heating demand in northern my country, with the rapid growth of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity, the power grid superimposes wind power during the traditional night-time low load period. In addition to the electricity curtailment caused by the high power generation period, the photovoltaic peak period in the noon is also facing peak shaving pressure, and the problems of wind and solar curtailment are becoming more and more prominent

Method used

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  • Wind power and photovoltaic consumption prediction and early warning method
  • Wind power and photovoltaic consumption prediction and early warning method
  • Wind power and photovoltaic consumption prediction and early warning method

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Embodiment 1

[0141] Assuming that the maximum load of the whole society in a certain province in 2019 is 36.06 million kilowatts, the annual load curve of the power grid in a certain province is shown in Figure 2, and the typical daily load curve is shown in Figure 2 image 3 and diagram Figure 4 shown.

[0142] According to the characteristics of wind and photovoltaic resources in a certain province, the historical wind power and photovoltaic output data, and the installed capacity at the corresponding time point, the per unit value curve of wind power and photovoltaic output is obtained, as shown in Figure 5 , Figure 6 shown.

[0143] It is estimated that the net power received by a provincial connection line is 7 million kilowatts. The original plan was to add 500,000 kilowatts of wind power installed capacity in 2019, with a total installed capacity of 8.1 million kilowatts; newly added photovoltaic installed capacity of 340,000 kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 3.36 m...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of electric power, in particular to a wind power and photovoltaic consumption prediction and early warning method. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a new energy consumption evaluation model; constructing a new energy installation planning model; and obtaining a calculation result through example simulation. According to the method,factors such as fluctuation of system load and new energy, a power supply structure, power grid peak shaving capability and influence of new energy access to the power grid on the peak shaving capability are comprehensively considered, and the admitting capability of the power grid on the new energy is quantitatively evaluated. On the premise of giving consideration to company benefits and socialbenefits, the situation that blind newly-added installation for increasing the consumption pressure or planning is too conservative and cannot achieve full utilization of clean energy is avoided, thegovernment requirements for energy conservation, environmental protection, clean energy admission and the like in China can be met, reasonable new energy planning is formulated, and the safe and stable operation capacity of the power grid is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power technology, in particular to a wind power and photovoltaic consumption prediction and early warning method. Background technique [0002] Due to the strong uncertainty in the change of wind speed and light intensity, the output of new energy is also uncertain. At present, the power balance of the power system is mainly achieved by adjusting the power output of coal generating units. However, due to the influence of power supply structure and heating demand in northern my country, with the rapid growth of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity, the power grid superimposes wind power during the traditional night-time low load period. In addition to the electricity curtailment caused by the high power generation period, the photovoltaic peak period in the noon is also facing peak shaving pressure, and the problems of wind and solar curtailment have become increasingly prominent. Wind energy and ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/46H02J3/38
CPCH02J3/46Y02P80/10Y02E10/76Y02P80/20
Inventor 张娜侯依昕张明理潘霄梁毅韩震焘商文颖王义贺邓鑫阳吉星杨方圆仲崇飞满林坤刘禹彤李纯正何昕李帅李美君徐强胜王优胤卢天琪白坚实姜雪
Owner STATE GRID LIAONING ECONOMIC TECHN INST
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