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Epidemic situation prediction method and device based on population migration, electronic equipment and medium

A prediction method, a technology of epidemic situation, which is applied in the field of epidemic prediction based on population migration, can solve problems such as social impact and does not consider the impact of virus transmission, and achieve accurate prediction effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-04-10
杭州博盾习言科技有限公司
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0002] A new type of coronavirus emerged in December 2019, and it broke out into a highly contagious virus in a very short period of time. Although the current fatality rate is not high, if it is not suppressed, it will have a great impact on the entire society
The existing epidemic prediction method does not consider the impact of the movement of people between cities on the spread of the virus, which does not meet the actual situation of the development of the epidemic in the event of large-scale flow of people such as the Spring Festival travel.

Method used

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  • Epidemic situation prediction method and device based on population migration, electronic equipment and medium
  • Epidemic situation prediction method and device based on population migration, electronic equipment and medium
  • Epidemic situation prediction method and device based on population migration, electronic equipment and medium

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Embodiment 1

[0047]Embodiment 1 provides an epidemic prediction method based on population migration, which aims to construct a composite urban network model of the area to be predicted based on the epidemic data and the population migration data between cities to be predicted, and then realize the situation of large-scale flow of people. Next, the accurate prediction of the city's future K-day epidemic data is treated, and it is displayed visually through a heat map. This method obtains a hierarchical complex dynamic model through all the cities to be predicted in the area to be predicted, which not only includes the epidemic transition situation within the city to be predicted, but also considers the large-scale flow of people such as the Spring Festival travel. The impact of population migration on the development of the epidemic situation, and then realize the accurate prediction of the future K-day epidemic data of the city in the case of large-scale flow of people, and through the hea...

Embodiment 2

[0071] Embodiment 2 is an improvement on the basis of Embodiment 1. Based on the data of four groups of people in N cities to be predicted, the population migration data between cities and the total population of cities to be predicted, N subgroups are obtained by improving the SEIR model calculation. The dynamic change rate of the epidemic situation of the four groups of people in the network reflects the dynamic changes of the susceptible population, latent population, infected population and recovered population, and then obtains N sub-networks.

[0072] Each sub-network of cities to be predicted includes an improved SEIR model. The infectious diseases studied by the standard SEIR model have a certain incubation period. Healthy people who have been in contact with patients do not get sick immediately, but become carriers of pathogens. It is one of the most commonly used models for predicting infectious diseases. Such as figure 2 As shown, in the SEIR model, considering th...

Embodiment 3

[0087] Embodiment 3 discloses an epidemic prediction device based on population migration corresponding to the above embodiment, which is the virtual device structure of the above embodiment, please refer to Figure 4 shown, including:

[0088] Data acquisition module 210, used to acquire epidemic data and population migration data;

[0089] A model construction module 220, configured to construct a composite urban network model of the area to be predicted according to the epidemic data and the population migration data;

[0090] The epidemic prediction module 230 is used to calculate the epidemic data through the composite urban network model to obtain the data of the infected population in the future K days of the city to be predicted;

[0091] The epidemic display module 240 is configured to obtain K epidemic heat maps based on the preset epidemic interval and the data of the infected population in the city to be predicted in the future K days.

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Abstract

The invention discloses an epidemic situation prediction method based on population migration, and relates to the technical field of epidemic situation prediction. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining epidemic situation data and population migration data; constructing a composite city network model of a to-be-predicted area according to the epidemic situation data and the populationmigration data; calculating the epidemic situation data through a composite city network model to obtain infected crowd data of a to-be-predicted city in the future K days; and obtaining K epidemic situation thermodynamic diagrams based on the preset epidemic situation interval and the infection crowd data of the to-be-predicted city in the future K days. The hierarchical complex kinetic model obtained by the method considers the influence of population migration conditions on epidemic situation development during large-scale people flow activities such as spring transportation, so the methodrealizes accurate prediction of future epidemic situation data under the condition of large-scale people flow activities, can visually check the epidemic situation development conditions, and is usedas a reference for adopting epidemic situation prevention and control means. The invention further discloses an epidemic situation prediction device based on population migration, electronic equipment and a computer storage medium.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of epidemic prediction, in particular to an epidemic prediction method, device, electronic equipment and medium based on population migration. Background technique [0002] A new type of coronavirus emerged in December 2019, and it broke out into a highly contagious virus in a very short period of time. Although the current fatality rate is not high, if it is not suppressed, it will have a great impact on the entire society . The speed of the virus spread this time is fast, and it coincides with the traditional Chinese New Year, Spring Festival, etc., when the flow of people increases. There is no past prevention and control experience to use as a reference. [0003] Existing epidemic prediction methods usually only use the epidemic data of a single city, only consider the conversion relationship between susceptible, latent, infected, and recovered within the city, and establish a dynamic model of a...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G16H50/80
Inventor 孟丹张宇李宏宇李晓林
Owner 杭州博盾习言科技有限公司
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