Epidemic situation prediction method and device based on population migration, electronic equipment and medium
A prediction method, a technology of epidemic situation, which is applied in the field of epidemic prediction based on population migration, can solve problems such as social impact and does not consider the impact of virus transmission, and achieve accurate prediction effect
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Embodiment 1
[0047]Embodiment 1 provides an epidemic prediction method based on population migration, which aims to construct a composite urban network model of the area to be predicted based on the epidemic data and the population migration data between cities to be predicted, and then realize the situation of large-scale flow of people. Next, the accurate prediction of the city's future K-day epidemic data is treated, and it is displayed visually through a heat map. This method obtains a hierarchical complex dynamic model through all the cities to be predicted in the area to be predicted, which not only includes the epidemic transition situation within the city to be predicted, but also considers the large-scale flow of people such as the Spring Festival travel. The impact of population migration on the development of the epidemic situation, and then realize the accurate prediction of the future K-day epidemic data of the city in the case of large-scale flow of people, and through the hea...
Embodiment 2
[0071] Embodiment 2 is an improvement on the basis of Embodiment 1. Based on the data of four groups of people in N cities to be predicted, the population migration data between cities and the total population of cities to be predicted, N subgroups are obtained by improving the SEIR model calculation. The dynamic change rate of the epidemic situation of the four groups of people in the network reflects the dynamic changes of the susceptible population, latent population, infected population and recovered population, and then obtains N sub-networks.
[0072] Each sub-network of cities to be predicted includes an improved SEIR model. The infectious diseases studied by the standard SEIR model have a certain incubation period. Healthy people who have been in contact with patients do not get sick immediately, but become carriers of pathogens. It is one of the most commonly used models for predicting infectious diseases. Such as figure 2 As shown, in the SEIR model, considering th...
Embodiment 3
[0087] Embodiment 3 discloses an epidemic prediction device based on population migration corresponding to the above embodiment, which is the virtual device structure of the above embodiment, please refer to Figure 4 shown, including:
[0088] Data acquisition module 210, used to acquire epidemic data and population migration data;
[0089] A model construction module 220, configured to construct a composite urban network model of the area to be predicted according to the epidemic data and the population migration data;
[0090] The epidemic prediction module 230 is used to calculate the epidemic data through the composite urban network model to obtain the data of the infected population in the future K days of the city to be predicted;
[0091] The epidemic display module 240 is configured to obtain K epidemic heat maps based on the preset epidemic interval and the data of the infected population in the city to be predicted in the future K days.
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