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A wind power ultra-short term probability prediction method and system based on empirical dynamic modeling

A dynamic modeling and wind power technology, applied in forecasting, electrical digital data processing, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of unfavorable data of model deviation, effective information mining, high complexity of wind farm dynamic system, and achieve reliable forecasting results , the effect of reducing prediction error and strong adaptability

Active Publication Date: 2019-06-14
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +3
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[0007] The present invention provides an ultra-short-term probability prediction method and system for wind power power based on empirical dynamic modeling. The technical problem of giving high-precision wind power forecasting results in

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  • A wind power ultra-short term probability prediction method and system based on empirical dynamic modeling
  • A wind power ultra-short term probability prediction method and system based on empirical dynamic modeling
  • A wind power ultra-short term probability prediction method and system based on empirical dynamic modeling

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[0039] It should be pointed out that the following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further explanation to the present application. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.

[0040] It should be noted that the terminology used here is only for describing specific implementations, and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly dictates otherwise, the singular is intended to include the plural, and it should also be understood that when the terms "comprising" and / or "comprising" are used in this specification, they mean There are features, steps, operations, means, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0041] The embodiment of the present invention predicts the ultra-short-term probability prediction of the wind ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power ultra-short term probability prediction method and system based on empirical dynamic modeling, and the method comprises the steps of carrying out the standard normalization processing on a time sequence of a to-be-predicted quantity, and carrying out the nonlinear aggregation degree calculation of data after the standard normalization processing, so as to inspect the nonlinear degree of a given dynamic system; calculating an optimal embedding dimension E and delay time tau by adopting a particle swarm optimization algorithm; further, performing phase spacereconstruction on the time sequence of the to-be-predicted quantity; and constructing an empirical dynamic model, and predicting the given dynamic system in the reconstruction phase space by adoptinga simplex projection method to obtain a prediction result of the to-be-predicted quantity. The prediction result shows that the wind power ultra-short term probability prediction method based on empirical dynamic modeling can achieve objective description of the wind power generation dynamic process completely according to data, and the effectiveness of probability prediction is remarkably improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power forecasting in the process of new energy power generation, and in particular relates to an ultra-short-term probabilistic forecasting method and system for wind power based on empirical dynamic modeling. Background technique [0002] Wind power is currently the most mature form of renewable energy generation. It has been connected to the modern power grid on a large scale and is making important contributions to the energy conservation and emission reduction of the whole society. As a representative of new energy power generation, wind power has a strong development momentum and broad market prospects relying on my country's unique geographical characteristics and policy advantages. At the same time, due to the fluctuation and intermittency of the output power of wind farms, the large-scale access of wind power brings great challenges to the operation and scheduling of the power system. Power ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F17/50G06Q50/06
Inventor 程艳王士柏杨明孙树敏苏建军孟瑜王楠张兴友王玥娇滕玮于芃李广磊魏大钧王尚斌刘守刚王勃赵元春马嘉翼
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY
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