Multi-time scale cascading failure prediction method of power system under typhoon weather condition

Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-time scale cascading failure prediction method of a power system under a typhoon weather condition. The method comprises the steps of 1, acquiring meteorological data and line parameters, and building a dynamic model of typhoon weather; 2, calculating initial fault probabilities of lines to form an initial fault set; 3, switching on or off any line of the initial fault set under an initial load level; 4, enabling the power system to sequentially carry out short-time scale judgment and corresponding control process and line overload control process of the short-time scale judgment; 5, carrying out fuzzy clustering on correlation indexes of the line, and taking the class with the highest relevance in a clustering result as an on-off line in the next stage; 6,updating the load level of the power system and weather indexes of the line; 7, repeating the steps 4-6, and until completion conditions are met, recording and outputting accident chain data. According to the method, an accident chain of the power system under the typhoon weather condition can be more really simulated when typhoon comes, so that guidance can be provided for research on cascading failures in typhoon.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power systems, in particular to a method for predicting multi-time scale cascading failures of power systems under typhoon weather conditions. technical background [0002] In recent years, typhoons have become more frequent. Typhoon weather will cause a significant increase in the failure rate and failure probability of transmission lines in a short period of time, and even cause damage to electrical equipment, thereby inducing large-scale power outages. The economic losses brought to the power system cannot be underestimated. Therefore, modeling cascading faults and predicting accident chains under typhoon weather conditions is of great significance for taking appropriate control measures to prevent the development of cascading faults and maintaining the safe and stable operation of the power system. [0003] For the research of cascading failures under typhoon weather conditions, the existing methods are mainly ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] For the research of cascading failures under typhoon weather conditions, the existing methods are mainly based on complex network theory. The failure rate of lines under typhoon weather conditions changes dynamically. The historical data of the two-state weather model is not accurate enough to describe the weather modeling. At present, the research on the prediction of cascading failures under typhoon weather does not comprehensively consider the internal and external factors of the occurrence and development of cascading failures; the influence of control measures in the accident chain path is not considered, resulting in a large difference between the prediction results of the accident chain and the actual scene

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