Wind/light contribution cauchy distribution-based dynamic and real-time dispatching method of thermal power generation set

Abstract

The invention relates to a wind / light contribution cauchy distribution-based dynamic and real-time dispatching method of a thermal power generation set, and belongs to the technical field of power system running. The wind / light contribution cauchy distribution-based dynamic and real-time dispatching method comprises the steps of firstly, analyzing historical data of wind power contribution, performing combined cauchy distribution fitting by statistic or fitting software, and building a random dynamic and real-time dispatching model of chance constraint with regard to the detected parameter ofa power system; secondly, converting an original problem to a linear constraint convex optimization problem easy to solve by mathematic property of cauchy distribution; and finally, solving the dispatching model to obtain a dispatching strategy. The excellent and favorable mathematic characteristic of the cauchy distribution in a short-term forecast aspect of wind power / photovoltaic power stationcontribution are fully utilized, and the solution rate of the model is effectively improved; and meanwhile, the conservation property of traditional robust economic dispatching is eliminated by a chance constraint model with adjustable risk level, and more reasonable dispatching basis is provided for a decision maker. The method can be used for active power real-time economic dispatching of a large-scale wind and power grid-connected power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a dynamic real-time scheduling method for thermal power units based on Cauchy distribution of wind / solar output, in particular to a dynamic real-time scheduling method for thermal power units based on Cauchy distribution of wind power / photovoltaic output, and belongs to the technical field of power system operation. Background technique [0002] The development and utilization of wind power resources to realize the sustainable development of energy is a major measure of my country's energy development strategy. With the large-scale access of wind power to the grid, its volatility and randomness have brought two difficulties to the active power dispatching of the power system. [0003] On the one hand, accurate and flexible wind power output forecasting is the basis for safe and economical active power dispatching. Traditional forecasting methods include the interval description method with a given upper and lower limits of outp...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] On the one hand, accurate and flexible wind power output forecasting is the basis for safe and economical active power dispatching. Traditional forecasting methods include the interval description method with a given upper and lower limits of output and the simple Gaussian probability density function description method. Although beta distribution, general-purpose Distribution, mixed Gaussian distribution and other models have also been used in the fitting of wind power forecast output, but they either cannot accurately fit the wind power forecast output, or bring great difficulties to the solution of the active power dispatching model, so an accurate , flexible forecasting models need to be applied urgently

[0004] On the other hand, the volatility and randomness of wind power make it difficult to apply traditional deterministic scheduling methods

Robust economic scheduling is usually a feasible solution. However, due to the conservative nature of robust optimization, it will bring unnecessary costs to scheduling; chance-constrained stochastic economic scheduling is an effective modeling strategy that takes into account system operating risks and reduces costs. , this method limits the probability of risk occurrence to a pre-specified confidence level, and obtains the lowest-cost scheduling strategy by minimizing the value of the objective function

However, the random variables in the constraints and objective functions make it very difficult to solve the chance-constrained optimization problem. The existing solution methods generally have the disadvantage of large amount of calculation. However, the relaxation method makes the solution results inaccurate and cannot realize economic scheduling. Efficiency

[0005] In summary, the modeling and fast solution of dynamic economic dispatch considering the randomness of wind power output is still a major problem affecting the utilization of wind power resources

Images