Tropical cyclone ensemble prediction method based on target system disturbance

Abstract

The invention provides a tropical cyclone ensemble prediction method based on target system disturbance. The method comprises steps that 1), an initial background field of a mode is determined; 2), scale separation of the initial background field is performed to obtain a large-scale background field and small and medium-scale disturbance fields; 3), the separated small-scale field is disturbed; 4), the separated large-scale field is superimposed with the disturbed small and medium-scale fields, and tropical cyclone ensemble prediction initial members based on target system disturbance are obtained; and 5), the initial ensemble members obtained in the 4) are used as the initial field to carry out tropical cyclone ensemble prediction. The method is advantaged in that the background field isdecomposed into the slowly varying large-scale field and the fast-changing small and medium-scale fields, the small and medium-scale fields are disturbed to obtain the tropical cyclone ensemble prediction initial members based on target system disturbance, a problem that the global mode medium and long term prediction disturbance technology is often utilized for tropical cyclone ensemble prediction in the prior art is solved, and thereby the initial ensemble members are made to have more pertinence.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of numerical weather prediction, and in particular relates to a tropical cyclone ensemble forecast method based on target system disturbance. Background technique [0002] For tropical cyclone numerical forecasts, the current consensus is that due to the existence of initial value errors and model errors, it is difficult to make stable and accurate forecast results with a single initial value and single model deterministic forecast. In order to reduce the influence of various errors on the forecast results, the method of ensemble forecasting is applied to the numerical forecast research and operational forecast of tropical cyclones. The ensemble forecasting methods of tropical cyclones commonly used in current research and operations can be divided into three categories, namely, disturbed initial environmental field, disturbed tropical cyclone initial position and intensity, and disturbed mode. At present, the e...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting method based on target system disturbance, in order to solve the problem that there is still a lack of ensemble member construction method specially for tropical cyclone numerical forecasting

Images