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Method and device for predicting output of distributed power supply

A distributed power supply and output prediction technology, applied in circuit devices, electrical components, AC network circuits, etc., can solve the uncertainty of node active power and reactive power, the inaccurate power supply capability of the distribution network, and the inability of real-time distribution network. Operation control provides decision-making basis and other issues to achieve accurate calculation results

Active Publication Date: 2019-04-12
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD +1
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, due to the uncertainty of distributed power output, that is, the active power and reactive power of each node are uncertain, the distributed power output calculated by the existing method is not accurate enough to calculate the power supply capacity of the distribution network It cannot provide decision-making basis for the real-time operation control of distribution network

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  • Method and device for predicting output of distributed power supply
  • Method and device for predicting output of distributed power supply
  • Method and device for predicting output of distributed power supply

Examples

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no. 1 example

[0093] The embodiment of the present application provides a first embodiment of a method for forecasting distributed power output, including:

[0094] Step 101, obtain the total output forecast value of the distributed power supply.

[0095] It should be noted that the total output of distributed power can be predicted by many methods. However, due to the uncertainty of distributed power output, the total output of distributed power fluctuates, so the total output prediction value is inaccurate.

[0096] Step 102: Determine the output lower limit of the distributed power generation according to the fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in the information gap decision theory. The output lower limit is composed of the total output predicted value and a deviation coefficient, wherein the deviation coefficient is unknown and greater than or equal to zero.

[0097] It should be noted that in the information gap decision theory, uncertain parameters will fluctuate around the p...

no. 2 example

[0162] The embodiment of the present application provides a second embodiment of a method for forecasting distributed power output, including:

[0163] Step 601, obtain the total output forecast value of the distributed power supply.

[0164] Step 602: Determine the output upper limit of the distributed power generation according to the fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in the information gap decision theory. The output upper limit is composed of the total output predicted value and a preset deviation coefficient, wherein the deviation coefficient is unknown and greater than or equal to zero.

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a method and a device for predicting the output of a distributed power supply. The method comprises the following steps: determining an output lower limit ofthe distributed power supply according to a fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in an information gap decision-making theory; calculating original power supply capacity according to a preset power supply capacity model and a total output predicted value; determining a power supply capacity lower limit according to original power supply capacity and a first preset deviation factor; determining a maximum deviation factor value as a first deviation factor when the negative value of an objective function is not greater than the power supply capacity lower limit by taking the negative valueof power supply capacity as the objective function of a risk avoidance model; and determining the output range of the distributed power supply under the risk avoidance model according to the first deviation factor and the fluctuation formula. The output of the distributed power supply can be predicted relatively accurately under the premise of uncertainty for the output of the distributed power supply, the calculation for the power supply capacity of a power distribution network is relatively accurate, and a decision-making basis is provided for real-time operation control of the power distribution network.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric power market, and in particular to a method and device for output forecasting of distributed power sources. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of distributed generation (DER) in the distribution network, its access ratio continues to increase. Moreover, due to the uncertainty of distributed generation output, DER has an increasing impact on the power supply capacity of the distribution network. [0003] With the continuous advancement of China's electric power reform, the power market is also constantly advancing. Power trading in the day-ahead market is a continuous, real-time process of supply and demand balance and price determination. Real-time trading is to divide each day into several time periods, and auction and bid the load by time period. All parties involved in real-time power market transactions hope to obtain the power supply capacity informatio...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38H02J3/46
CPCH02J3/381H02J3/46H02J2203/20
Inventor 李广凯高亚静郑金段力勇王庆红洪骁
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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