Railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system

Abstract

The invention discloses a railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system. The method comprises the steps that firstly, the environment monitoring quantity, the equipment monitoring quantity and the carrying monitoring quantity of a certain railway transportation interval are collected, and the railway transportation risk probability is output; secondly, reducing the intersection heuristic confidence rule through a reduction rule to obtain a hybrid heuristic rule system comprising the intersection and the union; and finally, an evidence reasoning (ER) algorithm is utilized to fuse the confidence structure in the item after the activated confidence rule is input to obtain the risk probability. According to the invention, various elements ofrailway transportation risk calculation, including environment monitoring quantity, equipment monitoring quantity, carrying monitoring quantity and the like, can be processed; the method comprises intersection rules and union rules, so that the total number of the rules can be reduced, the rule combination explosion problem is avoided, and the calculation efficiency is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for calculating the risk probability of railway transportation based on a hybrid heuristic rule system, which belongs to the field of railway transportation safety. Background technique [0002] Safety is the eternal theme of railway transportation, and safety is the most important quality feature of railway transportation products. With the development of the society and the advancement of technology, especially in recent years, the continuous promotion and deepening of the work research in the field of railway safety, the railway safety technology has made great progress. The development of risk probability calculation has been highly valued by various railway departments. Risk probability calculation has made remarkable achievements not only in theory but also in practice, and has played a positive role in reducing railway transportation accidents. [0003] At present, relevant researchers have proposed many method...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Simulation-based method: build a simulation model for the dynamic process of railway operation. The advantage of this method is that it has a good visual effect for the dynamic characteristics. The disadvantage is that the simulation modeling requires a lot of information and it is difficult to explain the different simulations generated in each run. Results; network-based method: Since the railway operates in a transportation network, cities (stations) can be used as nodes, and lines (connections) between two cities can be used as lines. This method is suitable for complex structures and multi-nodes Risk-based methods: system failures or accidents can be used to calculate risk probabilities including event tree analysis (ETA), fault tree analysis (FTA), etc. In these methods, risk probability depends on the occurrence of accidents or system failures, This is an external perspective. In fact, there are not many faults that actually occur in railway transportation, and the amount of data is small; for some complex problems, multiple methods can be integrated into a hybrid method to meet actual needs, but the hybrid method is usually only applicable on specific issues

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