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A model and method for predicting the occurrence of heatstroke based on machine learning

A technology of machine learning and random forest model, which is applied to the model and field based on machine learning to predict the occurrence of heatstroke, can solve the problems of lack of corresponding evaluation, poor reliability of the prediction model, etc., to improve the effect, reduce economic losses, and fit nonlinearity well The effect of the relationship variable

Active Publication Date: 2022-06-24
中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a model and method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, so as to solve the shortcomings of the existing related prediction models in terms of poor reliability and lack of corresponding evaluation based on actual data; Prediction model of urban heat stroke events and its application in the prediction and early warning of high temperature heat stroke events

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  • A model and method for predicting the occurrence of heatstroke based on machine learning
  • A model and method for predicting the occurrence of heatstroke based on machine learning
  • A model and method for predicting the occurrence of heatstroke based on machine learning

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[0039] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and implementation cases.

[0040] A model and method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, the specific process is as follows figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0041] Step 1: Establish a database of high temperature events in typical high temperature cities in my country over the years

[0042] Collate economic and sociological indicators and meteorological data of typical Chinese cities, including short-term lag data of meteorological factors such as city, date, number of heat strokes on the day, average temperature from the previous day to five days, maximum temperature, relative humidity, and their corresponding The average value of long-term meteorological data in the first five years of At the same time, a more timely updated Baidu search index was added. Based on my country's largest Baid...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a model and method for predicting the occurrence of heatstroke based on machine learning. Step 1: Establish a database of high-temperature events in typical high-temperature cities; Step 2: Perform data matching and cleaning on the database; Step 3: Apply Boruta algorithm to perform variable screening; Step 4: Establish the training data set and verification data set of the random forest model; Step 5: Determine the random forest parameters and establish the random forest model; Step 6: Rank the importance of variables; Step 7: Evaluation of model prediction results; Step 8: Apply Bland ‑Altman consistency evaluation method was used to evaluate the model results. The method of the invention can better represent the adverse health effects of high temperature and heat wave events; it can better fit nonlinear relationship variables and improve the effect of model fitting; it can predict the occurrence of heat stroke events more comprehensively; it can better reduce crowd health Injury, reducing the economic loss related to the health of the population.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a model and method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, including the establishment of a model based on a random forest method and the evaluation of its model fitting effect, in particular to a model and method for predicting the average daily number of heat stroke cases in different regions , based on meteorological and socioeconomic parameters in different regions, combined with machine learning methods to establish a prediction model to evaluate the average daily number of heat stroke cases in the future, which belongs to the technical field of machine learning applied to intelligent prediction of high temperature health hazards. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the situation of heat wave events around the world has been severe. According to the report issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of heat waves has increased in the past ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 李湉湉王彦文杜艳君王情
Owner 中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所
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