A tropical cyclone path forecasting method based on grid big data statistical method

Abstract

The invention discloses a tropical cyclone path forecasting method based on grid big data statistical method, which comprises the following steps: dividing the important sea area where the tropical cyclone path appears or occurs into grids according to longitude and latitude with one degree as step length, and counting the occurrence frequency and distribution of all tropical cyclone path nodes; Select the node before the tropical cyclone path enters the 24, 48 or 72 hour warning line as the starting point, filter the large data passing through the grid where the starting point is located, andcount the historical correlation data of all historical tropical cyclone tracks at the point, the former node and the latter node. The main factors that determine the track of tropical cyclone are analyzed and screened, As the forecast parameters, the probability distribution of the forecast parameters from the node before the start point to the start point, and from the node after the start point to the start point in the big data is calculated, and the statistical forecast model of the tropical cyclone track node based on the big data is established, and forecasting and early warning of thetropical cyclone path are carried out according to the forecast model.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a tropical cyclone path forecasting method, in particular to a tropical cyclone track forecasting method based on grid big data statistics. [0002] Cyclone Track Forecasting Methods. Background technique [0003] A tropical cyclone is a strong air vortex that occurs over the tropical ocean. It is powerful and destructive. It is often accompanied by strong winds, heavy rain, huge waves and storm surges when it passes through the border. my country is the most affected, most extensive and disaster-affected by tropical cyclones in the world. One of the worst countries. Improving the forecasting ability of tropical cyclones can effectively reduce the social and economic damage caused by such severe meteorological disasters. Therefore, continuously improving the operational forecasting level and capabilities of tropical cyclones has always been an important task of my country's meteorological services. Among them, the fore...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to the lack of data on the ocean and the incorrect selection of parameter changes caused by inaccurate analysis of physical processes, etc., the level of numerical forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks is often not high, and the forecast error is large.

Although objective forecasting methods have achieved good forecasting results, at present, the accuracy of operational forecasting for changes in the track of tropical cyclones has not improved much

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