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Four-step-coupled middle and long term hydrologic forecasting method

A hydrological forecasting, medium and long-term technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of forecasting model system errors, failure to consider uncertain factors, errors, etc., to reduce interference and enrich uncertain information , The effect of scientific and reasonable decision-making basis

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-06-01
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Affected by many factors such as climate and meteorological factors, changes in the underlying surface, and human activities, the hydrological process presents complex nonlinear characteristics, and it is still difficult to carry out medium- and long-term hydrological forecasting
[0004] Generally speaking, the current medium and long-term hydrological forecasting methods mainly have the following three problems: (1) Since the time series used in forecasting may be polluted by noise, there are certain errors, and the forecasting model itself also has systematic errors, so the forecast results are consistent with the measured values. There will be a certain error in the ratio, and it is necessary to analyze the error law and correct the original forecast results
(2) Each forecasting method has its own applicable conditions, and no model can always achieve good forecasting results in any watershed
Therefore, only using a certain forecasting model will lead to unstable forecasting results, and it is necessary to study the comprehensive analysis of multiple models
(3) Most of the current mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts use fixed-value forecasts, and do not take into account the uncertainties in the forecasting process

Method used

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  • Four-step-coupled middle and long term hydrologic forecasting method

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Embodiment

[0041] Example: There is an existing monthly natural runoff series from 1980 to 2015 at a certain hydrological observation station, of which 1980-2010 is the regular rate period, and 2011-2015 is the verification period. According to the method of the present invention, the process of forecasting the monthly runoff in 2011-2015.

[0042] Such as figure 1 As shown, a four-step coupled mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting method includes the following steps:

[0043] Step 1, forecast: Divide the measured hydrological data {H(t)} (where t=1,2,...,T) into rate-period data H(t 1 ) and verification period data H(t 2 ); In this embodiment, the monthly natural runoff series of the hydrological observation site in 1980-2015, wherein 1980-2010 is the rate period, and 2011-2015 is the verification period. Adopt multiple regression model, support vector machine model, random forest model 3 kinds of hydrological forecasting models in the embodiment to predict the monthly runoff i...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a four-step-coupled middle and long term hydrologic forecasting method. The four-step-coupled middle and long term hydrologic forecasting method comprises the following steps:step (1) forecasting: carrying out middle and long term hydrologic forecasting by adopting various models according to watershed hydrologic and meteorological data; step (2) carrying out error correction: carrying out the error correction on a forecasting result by adopting an AR (Augmented Reality) model, so as to obtain a corrected forecasting result; step (3) integrating various models: carrying out weighting processing on the forecasting result corrected by the various models according to errors of the corrected forecasting result of all the models, so as to obtain a comprehensive forecasting result; step (4) evaluating the reliability: based on the comprehensive forecasting result, quantitatively evaluating uncertain factors in a forecasting process by adopting a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), so as to obtain an interval forecasting result under a certain confidence degree. The forecasting result can provide abundant uncertainty information, and more scientific and reasonable decision-making evidences are provided for water resource dispatching and configuration; the forecasting result has important actual meaning.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, in particular to a new technology of four-step coupling medium and long-term hydrological forecasting. Background technique [0002] Hydrological forecasting plays an important role in flood control and drought relief, water resources planning and development and utilization. However, with the increase of the forecast period, the forecast uncertainty is increasing, and the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting technology is facing difficulties and challenges. Accurate mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts are beneficial to mastering future water regimes, and are of great significance to regional water resources management and dispatch. [0003] At present, medium and long-term hydrological forecasting methods are generally divided into land-atmosphere coupled methods and statistical methods. The land-atmosphere coupling method couples the atmospheric model and the h...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 王军梁忠民肖章玲牛小茹李彬权胡义明
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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