Four-step-coupled middle and long term hydrologic forecasting method
A hydrological forecasting, medium and long-term technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of forecasting model system errors, failure to consider uncertain factors, errors, etc., to reduce interference and enrich uncertain information , The effect of scientific and reasonable decision-making basis
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[0041] Example: There is an existing monthly natural runoff series from 1980 to 2015 at a certain hydrological observation station, of which 1980-2010 is the regular rate period, and 2011-2015 is the verification period. According to the method of the present invention, the process of forecasting the monthly runoff in 2011-2015.
[0042] Such as figure 1 As shown, a four-step coupled mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting method includes the following steps:
[0043] Step 1, forecast: Divide the measured hydrological data {H(t)} (where t=1,2,...,T) into rate-period data H(t 1 ) and verification period data H(t 2 ); In this embodiment, the monthly natural runoff series of the hydrological observation site in 1980-2015, wherein 1980-2010 is the rate period, and 2011-2015 is the verification period. Adopt multiple regression model, support vector machine model, random forest model 3 kinds of hydrological forecasting models in the embodiment to predict the monthly runoff i...
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